five challenges facing the next government

While the government claims that Mauricio Macri's government will leave a better legacy than Cristina Kirchner, economist and former president of Banco Nacion, Carlos Melconian says "it will be different but as difficult as in 2015".

"The Argentine economy will accumulate 8 years of decline, it is a performance similar to that of Greece (crisis with Europe), Ukraine (war with Russia) and Brazil (political crisis)", and the average inflation rate will be higher than the previous period, Macroview's director, Carlos Melconian, told his clients, according to Infobae.

While baduring "that the foundations will be laid for real growth", the economist warned that the new government (whatever his party) will have at least 5 challenges to overcome:

1) Stop underestimating macroeconomics
2) Break the economic decline
3) Consensus (as no one will have a parliamentary majority), an agenda establishing a link between the Agreement and the IMF
4) What to do with the fiscal adjustment vis-à-vis the payment of the public debt, accompanied by a low tax shock
5) Integrate a single monetary regime into the functioning of the economy

Melconian inquired about Cambiemos' achievements: "There is no exchange control and it floats, we will reach the end of the term with a primary budget balance and a budget surplus in the provinces, the energy deficit has been reversed and the red of the With these achievements, it is thought that the reopening of the voluntary debt market will be a natural consequence. "

However, he pointed out that "beyond the proper direction and management, the government has failed to reverse the economic situation, the recession and high inflation."

The director of Macroview firstly did not "underestimate macroeconomics", with progressive policies, given that he felt that the next government would need growth at an annual rate cumulative 3.7% to return to the 2011 GDP per capita at the end. his mandate in 2023.

For this, the consensus of private sector economists and the opposition believes that it is essential to deal with the restructuring of the maturity of the public debt from the first day of management, which will require to go through the filter of the International Monetary Fund which, in its menu of options to approve an extended installation contract seem inexorably to face structural reforms: retirement, work, tax and state, although there is still no consensus.

One of the films that Melconian presented to his clients shows that the refinancing needs of the public debt would not be as urgent, because it is from 2022 that the most important demands are observed, because the credit maturities begin to expire. IMF for more than 20,000 million dollars.

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