Five rods for a government in crisis

Faced with three illusions that support it, five threats reveal the government. The numerical imbalance would not be so relevant if it weren’t for the depth of the challenges and when they turned (or transformed) into threats: just at the precise moment when Alberto Fernández dreamed of projecting himself and his direction in the next three years. Until the vaccine is unleashed, accompanied by legal decisions that end up disrupting everything.

In this way, the degree of alteration the president has shown in such an unusual (or inappropriate) area as a press conference with a foreign president who invited him to his country can be better understood.

The project Fernández rocked last November collided with a “neutron bomb”, as he called it. to get vaccinated one of the presidential collaborators. In just four days the explosion was followed by a second wave with raids for irregularities in the vaccination operation and the pithy decision against the Kirchner family’s closest business partner, Lázaro Báez.

The vaccination crisis and the action of justice have come to complete the quintet of stalking that they compose with inflation, the probable new wave of Covid-19 infections and insecurity. No subject that can be indifferent to society.

The end of February and the beginning of March were the dates marked the “3×3 project”, written in November by Casa Rosada, to revive the government. Three months to overcome the problems (and mistakes) of the first year of management and plan for the next three years. But things have happened.

The scandal of the vaccinated vip continues to grow, without the urgent beheading of Ginés González García managed to function as a tourniquet. Reason enough for the presidential anger that his Mexican counterpart, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), would have taken care of the fire. Maybe to hide the light that the host gave Fernández on the first day of the visit. At least that’s what they matter (or justify) about the president. AMLO’s rhetorical trajectory gives it plausibility.

Meanwhile, the judiciary has put Kirchnerist corruption on the public agenda, set limits on pressure, and denounced the unease in the courts with the government. Anger is not exclusive to the court or to judges less close to the ruling party. It is also incubated among some who make up Kirchner’s “legitimate justice”. Deserves the pressure of the management of the campers of Anses by trying to prepare that more than two hundred magistrates end up feeding the pigeons of the Plaza Lavalle. Uniting disunited adversaries is a notable attribute of this ruling party. He had already done it with the unusable Supreme Magistrates.

Justice and health is in the current context a binomial reinforced by the dyad composed of death and corruption, which functions as an antonym. Hence the difficulty of mitigating the impact of the news these days.

The convictions in the K-money route not only restored the irregularities of the Kirchner administration, which explain the personal enrichment of officials or relatives. They also fueled the other scandal. VIP vaccination broadened collective conclusion that corruption kills (as the Eleven tragedy shows). Now, he seems to express that in addition, he chooses who he saves. And who chooses to save his own. Fuel for indignation.

The ruling party’s latest attacks on many judges also lend credibility to complaints and suspicions that it aims to enshrine impunity or simply to oversee justice. Excessive presidential disqualification of Mexican judges and media, angry criticism of the minister Marcela Losardo, which included judges who were his tennis partners, are comfortably articulated with the edge which Cristina Kirchner and their loyal collaborators and supporters have been deployed against the magistrates who are investigating them. Since before I have ruled Mauricio Macri.

Justice as harassment goes beyond judicial measures that can be directed directly against Fernández and his acts of government. Above all, they encourage the mistrust that never disappears between the vice president and the president and undermines the complex internal harmony of the Frente de Todos. The conviction of Báez and the confirmation of the sentences against Amado Boudou and Milagro Sala For the former president, these are the most important stages in a series of inadmissible judgments under her own government. These are not the only elements.

The takeover of the Judicial Council, the appointment or replacement of a few friendly judges in decisive courts and the attempts at judicial reform do not seem sufficient. And instead, far from domesticating, they trigger opposite reactions. This is understood by followers of conspiracy theories who, in addition, attribute lukewarmness to the president. As for Fernández not to lose his temper. Especially if you choose to exonerate yourself.

Health and money

The arrival of a new wave of coronavirus infections before vaccination is sufficient is a threat that has only gained momentum since last week. If this happens, the to get vaccinated it could take on even more worrying dimensions.

She is not alone on stage. Soaring prices are associated with growing insecurity more than a threat to Argentinian pockets. There is a long history of the politico-electoral effects of this combination. The upsurge in thefts and violent crime is another late sequel to the year of the pandemic. Like the closings of businesses promoted last month.

Another concern is beginning to emerge on the official horizon, which the government’s self-esteem has not yet placed in the realm of threat. There is great confidence in the ability to lobby and make a fortune. A delay in the agreement with the IMF has already moved from the category of the possible to that of the probable. The development of justifications goes hand in hand with the impetus for emergency procedures to reorient the process, even at the cost of giving in to (unwanted) demands.

It all comes down to a race against time. The electoral calendar is subject to it. The election dates oscillate between these five threats and the realization of the three illusions that fuel the hopes of the government.

First, the arrival of vaccines and their effective application as soon as possible. Not only to leave the scandal behind, but to change the social mood and open a new cycle of expectations, which the first year of leadership was tasked with postponing.

An economic rebound, carried by a new international tailwind, and able to make itself felt in the pocket with the anabolism of the income tax modification, the increase in wages and a postponement in the adjustments of the utility tariffs, This is the other element that nourishes hopes in Casa Rosada.

If this recovery were to occur, the possibilities of moving forward with the founding project of “self-management” would increase, which Fernández hinted at a week ago with the launch of the Economic and Social Council. An ambitious emancipatory claim according to which the to get vaccinated and Justice eclipsed and forced to put on hold. We will have to wait if better times make it viable. For now, we can see that the bitter lamentations that the setback caused at Casa Rosada have not had a public echo in the Instituto Patria or in the campers. The suspicions

Finally, There will always be the possibility of manipulating the electoral calendar to adapt to better times and to upset the opposition alliance. The strength of their unit could be seriously tested in critical districts if the pandemic provided the excuse for suspending compulsory primaries.

The threats of the present are not necessarily the suffering of the future. But not everything depends on luck.

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