For a prestigious researcher, after the pandemic will come the “New Roaring Twenties” and 2024 “will be a lack of control”

Nicholas Christakis, researcher at Yale University, in a article published by the BBC, argues that historically there has always been a release period at the end of a pandemic.

In his new book, “Arrow of Apollo: the profound and lasting impact of the coronavirus on our way of life” (The Apollo Arrow: The deep and lasting impact of the coronavirus on our way of life), anticipates what can happen In the coming years.

The researcher says he hopes vaccines will help us get out of this crisis, although he warns that group immunity will not be achieved quickly.

His research led him to say that after facing the biological impact of the pandemic in 2021, we will have to deal with the social, psychological and economic consequences of the virus. for some time to come, before entering the post-pandemic era.

“If you look at what has happened over the past 2,000 years, when the pandemics end, there will be a party. We will likely see something similar in the 21st century, ”he says.

And he adds: “Things are going badly for a while. We invented a vaccine, which is something miraculous, because we are the first generation of humans to have been able to invent, in real time, a response.

“This had never happened in history. In just 10 months, we managed to get a vaccine. However, hundreds of millions of doses have yet to be produced, distributed and above all persuaded to be vaccinated. “

“At least half of the population needs to be vaccinated and it will take at least a year, it won’t happen any faster. Meanwhile, the virus continues to spread.”

“So we’re gonna live this strange way we lived, with masks and closures, at least throughout the year 2021. Then we will achieve group immunity, either naturally, because the virus has infected enough people – at a high human cost -, or because many people have been vaccinated. “

Christakis argues that after the pandemic, “we will have to recover from the social, psychological and economic effects. Millions of people are unemployed or have closed their businesses. Many children have interrupted their learning at school. And many people will be in mourning. Overcoming all these problems will not be quick. “

He assures us that the current situation will remain the same all these years and that “then an intermediate period will come and around 2024 we will enter the post-pandemic”.

In answer to the question, what will this post-pandemic period look like? The researcher assured that “when we reach group immunity, even if the virus will always be with us, its potency will be less. Then will come the intermediate period, when the biological impact of the virus will come. The pandemic will be left behind. , but we will still have to deal with the economic and social impact. And around 2024, we will enter the post-pandemic period. “

Christakis assures us that “during a pandemic, people become more religious, save money, take risk aversion, have less social interaction and stay more at home. You stop seeing your friends. But in the post-pandemic, it will all take off. Back, as it happened in the roaring twenties of the last century. People will inexorably seek more social interaction. People will go to nightclubs, restaurants. , political demonstrations, sporting events, recitals. “

According to his estimate, in this time of waste and celebration, “religiosity will decrease, there will be greater tolerance for risk, and people will spend money they were unable to spend. After the pandemic, a time of sexual debauchery and economic waste could come “. .

“If you look at what has happened over the past 2,000 years when pandemics end, there is a party. We will probably see something similar in the 21st century, ”concludes Christakis.

GS