For Macri to understand | Economic Outlook Why …

Mauricio Macri, a football lover, might understand this: the continuity of his government until December 10 is no longer in his hands. It depends on the other results. Only he will not be able to stop the bleeding that has brought Argentina to the brink of a huge collapse.as has often been the case with neoliberal governments in the national experience of the last forty years.

The precarious scaffolding the president built supposed that he had come with some expectation towards the OSP. There is nothing left of this structure, to the point that he had to hide his finance minister, Nicolás Dujovne, removing from the field the man who should take care to transmit the official plans to overcome such a delicate situation. For Macri to understand, it's like he had to remove the guardian before setting the penalty. "For what it served", you can steal a platista, but the truth is that the impossibility of having a competent minister of economics in such chaos is a sign of the collapse of the government of Cambiemos.

The short shot that Marcos Galperín sent to the offices of Alberto Fernández exposes him cruelly. The owner of Mercado Libre should be observed by Lionel Scaloni to give him a chance in the selection. The red circle fears Macri. Arcor, from the Pagani family, had to close, for example, the second factory in La Campagnola in less than a month. The plants were 50 and 70 years old. Large, medium and small entrepreneurs are terrified by the costs that the crisis can bring to the health of their businesses. It is they, among others, who cause a leak of more than $ 600 million a day, as evidenced by the decline in reserves of the Central Bank. It is urgent to cut this sangria. On the contrary, the $ 15,000 million net reserves remaining in the BCRA will reach a maximum of one month. In this context, October 27 is an eternity.

The next decisive match Macri will face is with the IMF. The agreement with the agency, which is already lost counts the time it had to correct for so many violations, has again fallen. The fiscal, monetary, inflationary and reserve-level targets are all in red. No one is met. The contraction in GDP, estimated at 1.3% this year by the Monetary Fund, should be at least doubled. The governments of Raúl Alfonsín and Fernando de la Rúa have had traumatic experiences when the World Bank, in the first case, and the IMF, in the second, have suspended their aid after the explosion of plans. Emergency jointly developed: the Spring Plan and the Armor and Megacanje, respectively. If the Fund decides not to excuse the Macri government this time for failing to meet its objectives, the adventure of the CEOs will end immediately..

If the IMF, on the other hand, offered a new opportunity to the current executive, it could find oxygen, even if it remains on the ground. Next week comes the technical mission of the body. It is headed by Roberto Cardarelli, who knows his future is at stake, just like what happened to the IMF mission that he negotiated in 2001 with De la Rúa and Domingo Cavallo. Tomás Reichmann and Claudio Loser do not keep a good memory of this situation. The fall of the Alliance has also been its end in the Monetary Fund. Christine Lagarde, in love with Macri, has long since left the stadium and follows European alternatives.

Is it true that the IMF will ask Macri to limit the sale of foreign currency to $ 50,000 a month? This is one of the many versions circulating frenzy in the city of Buenos Aires, where they do not know who to believe after playing in a disproportionate rise in the stock market of 8% last Friday, before STEP. This operation has clearly shown how much public opinion is tempted to manipulate and to what extent the reality of the economy and the popular majorities of the speculative bubbles that allow the economic model that the Argentineans have suffered for three and a half years.

The IMF law prohibits the use of dollars borrowed by the agency to finance the flight of capital into a country. However, that is what has happened so far. Will it always be like that in more? If the government does not restrict the sale of foreign currency, how will it recover the offer? Dollar owners, mainly exporters of oilseeds and grains, had sold 8% less foreign exchange before the elections, despite a record harvest. This decline occurred compared to last year, marked by a historic drought. In this context, waiting now for an acceleration of sales is a chimera. In summary, with the dollar bid withdrawn and the demand out of control, the odds of even trading match are as numerous as Macri's to win in October.

The government of Cambiemos eliminated in 2016 any regulation on the sale of dollars. Dujovne has defended it by ensuring that it generates trust. Since then, in Argentina, the purchase of currencies is activated without limit. Not two million, not five million, or anything. What an investor, a hedge fund or a company wants, can acquire it. From these pages, it was noticed from that moment that it was a fixed-term suicide. Today is in sight. The IMF itself argues that the unrestricted opening of the capital account is crazy. But Argentina was allowed, under pressure from Donald Trump, who is leading the Macri and Bolsonaro projects for the region. Will Trump now come to buy grbad in an Argentine supermarket?

"It's worse than in 2001," the owner of a Chinese supermarket describes what she's currently experiencing. The price hike following the devaluation will start to appreciate in all its dimensions this weekend. Meat has already increased by 5%, while refrigerators have forecast growth to 15, the rest of food and beverages has become more expensive between 15 and 25%. Mbad consumption, which includes only food, beverages, toiletries and cleaning products, dropped three years after the Macri government and, in 2019, further tightened. The descent will be historic. This is the most important game that Macri expects: Social humor.

The opposition has been wary and cautious to avoid any signs worsening the crisis., beyond their own political badessments for the elections. It's almost the only medium left in Macri. Others, the hegemonic media, the red circle, the liaison office, the banks, the markets, the risk rating agencies, the oil companies and especially the citizens have lost their respect. Macri can understand this like this: "It's an eagerness, stop it"