For the first time in 55 years, the Communist Party of Cuba will not be led by a Castro

The Castro surname will no longer, at least in theory, be synonymous with pervasive power in Cuba. 62 years after the triumph of the Revolution, the promised and so often postponed generational change will have a full impact on the leadership of the almighty Communist Party, at a time when the island is going through a serious economic crisis aggravated by the pandemic of coronavirus.

Raul Castro, who turns 90 on June 3, will step down as the group’s first secretary at the eighth CPC Congress to be held this Friday through Monday in Havana just over four years after the death of his brother, Fidel Castro. It is, in practice, the most influential political position of the island.

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His possible heir, the current president Miguel Diaz CanelThe 60-year-old man who succeeded him as president of the country has nearly every ticket to carry on his legacy.

The departure of Castro’s younger brother has not yet been formalized, but the former Minister of the Revolutionary Armed Forces himself announced in 2016 the retirement of the historic generation for this year. Your number two, José Ramón Machado Ventura, a legendary Sierra Maestra fighter, is 90 years old and would add his name to these spare parts to “rejuvenate” the party.

It will be the first time since October 3, 1965, when the new Communist Party of Cuba was created after the July 26 Movement merged with other revolutionary organizations, that a Castro will not lead the CCP leadership.

Crisis, dreams and pandemic

As Cuban television prepares the ground with the broadcast of the series in prime time “Conquer a dream», On the history of the Communist Party of Cuba in nine episodes, the population is now more concerned with overcoming the inconveniences posed by everyday life and the COVID-19 pandemic.

With strict health restrictions and figures affecting a thousand daily cases of COVID-19, the population suffers from a shortage of essentials and awaits the results of the tests of two Cuban vaccines (Sovereign 2 Yes Abdala) who are going through the last phase of their clinical trials. But the economic crisis is worsening day by day.

The country suffered an 11 point drop in its GDP in 2020 due to the pandemic that hit its main source of income, tourism. In addition, many measures adopted by former US President Donald Trump which have strengthened the embargo against the island in force since 1961 and which include the end of American tourism opened by his predecessor Barack Obama and a severe limitation of shipments of funds.

In order to Luis Manuel Otero Alcantara, one of the most recognized representatives of the San Isidro Movement (MSI), an artistic and social political group created by dissident Cuban artists and intellectuals, “Raúl’s departure will have a psychological impact” on society.

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In telephone dialogue with TN.com.ar from Havana, the Cuban artist considered: “With Fidel, everything was omnipresent around him and his death left a total leadership void.”

“There is no leader who can cope with this power vacuum. Not even Raúl. Therefore, anyone “who assumes in the Communist Party”, even with the surname Castro, will not be well regarded. Díaz Canel lacks charisma, ”he says.

In addition, the opposition artist felt that beyond this change of generation, “the power continues to be in the Castro family”.

Otero Alcántara, who was arrested last year and charged with outrage over national symbols and damage to property in a series of protests organized by his movement, said the Cuban government “does not show the signs of a will for dialogue “to move” towards a democratic transition. “

With the crisis in Venezuela, he continued, the island does not have an international partner to supply it with oil: “The challenge is to know how we organize ourselves in opposition and civil society to push for the fall. of the diet “, which will seek to” survive with economic processes that can satisfy people and they can continue to live for 10 years on a little chicken and oil “.

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Raúl Castro, secretary emeritus?

For the Cuban analyst and lawyer Eloy Viera Cañive, collaborator of media dedicated to Cuban news such as the portal Touch, the fact that the historic leaders of the Revolution “abandon their daily bureaucratic tasks does not mean that they do not retain the influence and the capacity to overturn any decision taken in the country by hand”.

“I have no doubt that in Congress we will see statements” which point to mentioning Raúl Castro “as secretary emeritus and experiential guide” of the CCP. “This would allow him, even after his retirement, to be consulted on decisions that could jeopardize the Party’s political monopoly,” he said during a dialogue with TN.com.ar.

Viera Cañive, who currently resides in Canada, said the island is going through a severe economic crisis which she believes is similar to that experienced by the fall of the former Soviet Union. But now “Fidel Castro is not found, the historic generation is in retreat and no one retains the political capital” of the historic leader of the Revolution who died in 2016.

In addition, he clarified, “citizens are much more empowered, in particular through the use of the capacities offered by the Internet and social networks and there are obvious power struggles between conservatives and reformists. One of the things that can be measured after the conclave is the direction in which the scale is moving. Well, for the survival of the model, the at least stimulate deep economic reforms“, he underlined.

Will the Cuban economy recover?

The crisis facing Cuba today is deep. The island has always been seen in black and white, but in reality it is full of nuance. However, from within and without, it is vehemently and equally defended and attacked.

In this context, the Cuban economist Omar Everleny Perez He is convinced that Cuba must imitate the Vietnamese model to get out of this emergency and thus face its “many economic challenges”.

“GDP grew only 1% between 2016 and 2020 and fell 11% last year. It is a country where exports of goods and services have declined over the past 3 or 4 years and the harvest (sugar) does not exceed one million tonnes, ”he said. TN.com.ar Everleny Pérez, full professor at the University of Havana and former director of the Center for the Study of the Cuban Economy attached to this house of higher studies. The largest harvest in history took place in 1970, when 8.5 million tonnes were harvested.

Omar Everleny, economist

The State must be bolder in this next Party Congress

The economist said that this very complicated situation is influenced by the coronavirus pandemic but also by “internal factors” that must be improved and “the 240 measures implemented under the administration of Donald Trump which have not been reversed “and which worsened the embargo. “We are frozen in time with these measurements“, He warned.

For Everleny Pérez, “the state must be more daring in this next Party Congress. To be bold is to think that the market is an important complement to development and it would not be unreasonable to follow the Vietnamese model more, which had a blockade by the United States and even a war and which is today one of the most dynamic economies in Southeast Asia, ”he said.

Today, four in ten Cubans were born after the fall of the USSR or were very young when the Berlin Wall fell. “They must see the changes. If they don’t see the changes in their generation, their policy is to emigrate and that’s the worst thing that can happen to a country with highly skilled human resources, ”he said.

The economist said that one of the measures the model should incorporate is the small and medium enterprises. “This is something for which I see many opportunities and it does not contradict the Party documents. Cuba must move forward. The country, in this Congress, must open up a little more taking into account that new generations must see results. The older generations have seen changes compared to before the Revolution, but those who are 40 years old have seen the same country. We have to think about this generation“, He mentioned.

And he concluded: “This leap must include the market. There is no other way to be competitive. I am not saying that the public sector has no weight, but it should focus only on large macro programs. Retailing and agriculture must be in the hands of the private or cooperative sector. The public sector needs to lose weight. It is impossible to think that in the 21st century there are still state restaurants. It did not work “.

TN.com.ar He asked to speak with Cuban Ambassador to Argentina Pedro Pablo Prada Quintero to learn the official version of Raúl Castro’s departure from the island’s power structure and the challenges the country will face in the future, but he received no response.