For the IMF, macroeconomics is one of the most …

The International Monetary Fund
expects a contraction of 3.1% for Argentina in 2019. Only a year and a half after receiving the largest loan in the history of the agency and implemented a traditional program of austerity and reforms, the country will record the seventh worst recession on the planet. The fall that the country will experience will be overcome only by the collapse of the Venezuela, Libya, Iran, Zimbabwe, Nicaragua and Equatorial Guinea. This represents a downward revision of 1.8 percentage points from the 1.3% decline expected in the July review of the agreement to allow the last disbursement of the loan. Fund pessimism This equates to a 138% reduction in its forecast for the progress of the economy.

The global economic outlook FMI believe that as a result of the price increase recorded in recent months, inflation will reach 57.3% by the end of the year. The impulse of the successive exchange passages will be converted into lin Argentina in the third country in the world where inflation is the highest in 2019 only behind Venezuela and Zimbabwe. Unemployment will rise to 10.6% hand in hand with the destruction of jobs and declining income levels.

At the multilateral agency headed by Kristalina Georgieva, Bulgarian economist It does not show enthusiasm for the presidential exchange, but expects a smaller decline in GDP and slower price increases. The main individual creditor of Argentina predicts that in 2020, economic activity will decline by 1.3% and inflation will reach 39.3% by the end of the year.

The paper presented this morning as part of the annual meeting of the IMF in Washington proposes to emerging countries such as Argentina to implement a set of structural reforms Repel Flexibility of the workforce, trade opening, privatization, reduced market control and exchange rate deregulation they are the train of transformations that, as promised by the new leadership of the multilateral agency, will lead to increased economic growth.

Argentina is portrayed as one of the countries that, in recent decades, has implemented a broad reform agenda without achieving the desired results, but the paper does not contain any suggestions for a particular economy. "In some cases, the gains from the reforms may have been reversed by adverse events such as macroeconomic shocks or wrong policies. An example is the overvaluation of the exchange rate and the collapse of convertibility in Argentina", Indicates the FM. The report also regrets that after the convertibility crisis, some reforms have been reversed.

The world

The IMF warns that the march of the global economy is recording a synchronized deceleration that will mark an average growth of 3% in 2019, the slowest since the beginning of the international financial crisis. Next year, the level of activity will increase by 3.4%, although this figure represents a reduction of 0.2 point compared to the previous projection. "The dramatic deterioration of macroeconomic conditions observed between 2017 and 2019 in a small group of countries under very strong pressure (notably Argentina, Iran, Turkey and Venezuela) is at the forefront. half of the drop in global growth of 3.8 to 3.0% between 2017 and 2019, "said the IMF, adding that the same economies and Mexico, Brazil and Russia would account for 70% of improvements in 2020. The exception is Argentina. "The Argentine economy is expected to contract again in 2020 but less than this year," said the multilateral agency which has put on hold the transfer of the planned US $ 5,500 million disbursement planned for the Middle East. last month.

Argentina is presented by the IMF as one of the exceptions to the reduction in price increases related to global stagnation. "The few exceptions to this general deceleration trend are economies in which large devaluations put pressure on domestic prices such as those in Argentina or those in which there is a shortage of essential commodities such as Venezuela." said the agency, citing the recent impact of rising type. change in prices.

Contrary to the widespread diagnosis of government economists on the causes of inflation and the recommendations of the body to control them, the report of the Fund points out that "Inflation rose with the depreciation of the peso". Thus, he expects the average increase to reach 54.1%, while the accumulated inflation this year will reach 57.1%. By 2020, agency experts predict that the average increase will remain high by scoring 51% but will end at 39.4%.