Fragile political relief for Bolsonaro and a threat to pension reform

"I have already said the same thing when it was the prison of (the former) President Lula: it is something very bad for the country," said the vice president. President, retired General Hamilton Mourão. For him, one of the spokesmen of the powerful military branch of government, the news generates "noise".

In Brazil, some badyzes have revolved around the idea that arrest is a political lifeline for Jair Bolsonaro. The idea that the system is desperately rotten, which largely explains its choice, tends to prolong the patience of the population.

In this sense, the prison for Temer arrives just in time. According to the latest Ibope survey, the positive badessment of the president 's management went from 49% on January 1, while he badumed, at just 34%, the worst balance sheet so far to date. a mandate since the return of democracy in 1985

"While the President refuses up to here to play the coalition presidential game, that is to say a vast and unlimited general fund of public funds and burdens for the members of the Allied base of Congress, the Great pillar of support for the Government remains its popularity, "said political badyst Paulo Kramer at Ambito Financiero, of Brasilia.

"If its popularity diminishes, parliamentarians feel less" incited "to approve much-needed, though unpopular, short-term reforms bombarded by powerful companies that maintain well-above-average pensions," he said. he adds.

"The window of opportunity closes," warned the badyst.

Several factors have harmed the president's image, including allegations of obscure management of public funds and proximity to the self-defense militias of one of his sons, Flávio. But, moreover, in Congress, the idea that the articulation with the executive power is ineffective, because it has been entrusted to inexperienced operators, is gaining ground.

In this sense, the recent short circuits between the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, and the chief cabinet minister, the head of justice, Sérgio Moro, whose anti-corruption package is likely to be retained, are striking.

The case of Maia, a powerful politician who inherited a complex power structure, is paradigmatic. One of the detainees of yesterday is Moreira Franco, former minister and one of the most important men of the demiurist structure. And he is married to Maia's mother-in-law.

Plus: Franco Moreira belongs to the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), a party tied to all the reversals of power. Despite the reverse of the last election, it retains 34 MPs and 11 key senators to reach three-fifths of each room that require amendments. constitutional reform of pension reform.

The Brazilian pension system is the main cause of the country's budget deficit. It is also one of the most generous in the world because it does not set a minimum retirement age, which stems from complex formulas related to years of contributions, which often allows people 55 years of age to have access to the benefit. . While its reform is complex because it affects interests such as those of powerful public officials and those of the security forces, the "noise" that causes Congress to fall Temer tends to complicate things.

To make matters worse, the government itself has its limits in this area. If the armed forces are one of its pillars, it is also risky to affect their interests. It is therefore not surprising that the military side of the reform is accompanied by a reshuffling of wages that would reduce the economy of this box of $ 97.3 billion ($ 25.6 billion) estimated during the years. next ten years at $ 10,450).

De Bolsonaro, the financial market does not provide conservative restoration, nor family values, nor purge leftists. For him, his historic mission is to carry out the pension reform, always difficult to achieve. It will depend on this result if you raise or lower your thumb.