France: The far right fails in the regional ballot | As in the first round, the classic right rebounded and the abstention was record

From Paris

Certified and almost exact copy, the second round of the regional and departmental elections which took place this Sunday, June 28 in France, certified the trends of the first round of a week ago: Radical abstention, defeat of the far right where they aspired to set the tone, rise of the right, maintenance of power by the Socialists in the five regions that were under their administration, sinking of the presidential party LRM (La República en Marcha) and excellent results for environmentalists whose percentages prove the movement is rooted in the country’s electoral options.

The French voter once again demonstrated historic democratic apathy with an abstention of 65.7% against 66.7% a week ago. These percentages make abstainers the leading party in France. Campaigns on television, debates, promotion of the vote on social networks, intervention of politicians from all sectors to mobilize voters have had no effect.

The other big lesson from this last consultation ahead of the 2022 presidential election is theThe defeat of the extreme right of Marine Le Pen (RN party, National Regroupement). All of its candidates present in the second round have gone by the wayside. The failure is particularly shocking in the PACA region, Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, the only one where its candidate, Thierry Mariani, really had a chance of winning. The representative of the right and outgoing president of the region, Renaud Muselier, obtained 56.8% thanks to the republican front which was formed around his candidacy. The Socialists stepped aside and chose to vote in his favor to close the way for the Penist party.

The second round amplified the lines drawn by the first with regard to the redistribution of the political weight of the parties. The French PS was not wiped off the map so The Republican right has emerged from the caves with results that put its leaders in a comfortable position to possibly run in the presidential elections of 2022 under other conditions.. The leaders of the classic right with presidential aspirations have emerged from the shadows in which the renewed and hypothetical duel between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron had locked them.

Xavier Bertrand (Hauts-de-France, 52.7%), Laurent Wauquiez (Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, 55.9%) and Valérie Pecresse (Ile-de-France, 45.1%), have now become alternatives possible to the dead end that the polls had marked, a second presidential round in 2022 with the same protagonists as in 2017, that is to say Emmanuel Macron against Marine Le Pen. No event seemed able to change this configuration until, after the restrictions caused by the pandemic had ended, the voters, although with alarming degrees of abstention, restored a right which had practically disappeared at the same time as they validated the socialist options in the regions where the PS was in power. Those who are most affected politically are the party of Marine Le Pen, RN, and that of the current head of state, La República en Marcha. Silverfish did not reach a single region; The eight Macronist candidates who remained in the second round finished in third or fourth position. To the vote, the presidential party added 7% in the first round and a timid 10% in the second. The presidential movement has failed to gain a foothold locally.

Macron and Le Pen, the losers

The biggest defeat goes to Marine Le Pen. Ten years after taking control of the party after a public brawl with her father and founder of the French far right, Jean-Marie Le Pen, her daughter has encountered an outcome that slows down a dynamic of continuous electoral expansion. The strategy adopted by Marine Le Pen to “normalize” the party and dilute it among the other formations risks precipitating an internal crisis and calling into question its leadership.

In the region of the Altos de Francia where the conservative Valérie Pecresse faced the list of the union of the left led by the ecologist Julien Bayou (33.9%), a pathetic situation arose to which the crisis of the PS had a lot to see. The ex-prime minister of ex-president François Hollande, the “socialist” Manuel Vals, called for a vote for the right-wing candidate. Vals, along with Hollande, is now part of the museum of obscure characters who served as undertakers in French socialism. If you look at the map of France according to political colors, the black areas that represented the far right disappeared on Sunday. The map is a series of pink and blue layers (PS and right). The balance of power between social democracy, the left and environmentalists against the right is less sharp than 5 years ago. According to the IFOP pollster, nationally, Republicans total 38% of the vote against 34.5% of Socialists, Greens and other left-wing groups.

No one yet knows whether the abstention is due to democratic detachment, the consequences of long months of confinement and deprivation, or a poor evaluation of these regional and departmental elections. The two winners of 2017, Macron and Le Pen, are the losers of 2021. Nothing is at stake at all, but the conviction of two weeks ago has been watered down at the polls. If the right-wing leaders do not tear each other apart, the conservative current has arguments to replace Le Pen. If the left and environmentalists put aside their scenic and destructive conspiracies, they can also cease to be defeated extras and become candidates for the presidential goal.