From the beginning, I knew that Macri was going to explode the economy

Professional economist and politician. Agustín D'Attellis belonged to the so-called Gran Makro, a stream of economic thought in the era of Kirchnerism. Then, he distanced himself from Christianity and approached dissent: he was a candidate for the national deputation of Florencio Randazzo's party in 2017. Heterodox, even though he was not Keynesian to excess, D'Attellis returned to the Front space of all, with the appointment by Alberto Fernández in the formula with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

Exclusively for Capital, in an interview in Buenos Aires, he badyzed the explosive economic moment. "The default statement was very lively," the economist said.

– How do you visualize the current financial climate?

Banking systems are very sensitive to the climate of trust of the population. And it is obvious that we are going through a crisis of confidence in Argentina.

– Are the economic measures taken by the government late, inadequate, erroneous?

– In some cases, they take late action that is useless, but I also ask about the intention of certain measures, it worries me. For example, when I heard Minister Hernán Lacunza's lecture on Thursday, I immediately thought "it will generate a race, a mbadive outflow of mutual funds and that will result in a deposit exit". I saw it when it was announced?

_ And why do they do it?

-I know and respect Hernán (Lacunza), and he can not believe that he is taking these steps ignoring the consequences that will entail. Then I wonder if there will be a political plot behind the minister, a determined intention, but the truth is not certain.

_Do you do this by a political indication of the president himself, or perhaps because there is no other way?

-No no. Before making the policy of declaring the default, putting all the debts in danger and provoking the race, it could have forced exporters who, exceptionally, have 10 years to settle their currencies to bring back the dollars in 48 hours. The restrictions should also be reinstated, as was the case during Kirchnerism, including capping the purchase of two million dollars a month. Something that is not a corralito and that does not affect the middle clbad. It would be a brake on big capital and no problem for the middle clbad. These are measures that can be taken and that Hernán (Lacunza) may have wanted to apply, but they have been banned. Before Thursday we were in limit situation, now we go in the abyss.

_Alberto Fernández, in recent days, has fled the "hug of the bear", claiming the government to involve in the so-called crisis exit. How do you see that?

"Alberto does not even have to talk." The government must take charge of the measures that it has taken from the first day and that some of us had warned us were leading to this situation. Alberto is a candidate, he does not have the springs of power, what can he do? Speak to the IMF, tell him that his idea is not to put everything on fire or anything else. The government must take charge of its four years, the measures it takes and it is the only one with the tools to stop this situation.

– As a strategy, the government asks Alberto F to say precisely what he would do on December 11th. Does it have a logic to pronounce in this sense?

-No. Because no one knows what country we will have on December 11, so it is absurd to pretend that today, it gives details of its economic policy by then. Market risk these days does not go through Alberto's fear for December 11th. The problem was the current policy, which has exploded confidence and seems to be unable to be reversed; Alberto has no way of reversing the situation if it is to answer Macri's phone and have a cordial interview. And the problem is that the government has no way to turn around the trust because it is down and it has taken wrong measures one after the other.

– The failure of the Macri program was sealed from the first day, or the following phases did not work?

– When they started, we already knew where they were going. Some mark us from the first day. Then they took action that accelerated the process up to now. If you start paying the vultures and you take on a frenzied debt, you become the first country in the world to incur debt; Then in 2018, the markets tell you that there is no more debt for you and that you are staying in a default situation, then you go to the IMF and take out the biggest credit of the l '. history, and are you still in default for a year? They have disarmed the entire regulatory system of capital flows, which is very dangerous for a small country like Argentina. They made it possible for grain exporters who did not liquidate their dollars, incurred a galloping debt and constituted an internal financial system financed by the Central Bank (Lebac, Leliq), the result was inexorable. It was not necessary to be a magician to realize that we were going to end up like this.

– Can you imagine, in the next few days, that Lacunza will take measures to control the capital that the current government is demonizing (regarding Kirchnerism) and thus have a chance to save it and reach December?

"I think Lacunza has good intentions, which is pragmatic." When he seized this at an impossible time, I said "it will end very badly", but not by the minister, do not blame him for failure. Under the current circumstances, the situation will be impossible for Lacunza, for the magician Mandrake and for anyone. I think that Lacunza would be ready to go directly to the path of capital restrictions, but he is governed by politics. And they can say "here you are not going".

– The accelerated fall of Macri's economic plan serves at least to establish a winner in the hours and hours of theoretical, political and cultural debate, in the media, which had the economists of the national field, the center left, heterodox I you includes), against the neo-liberal theoretical plexus?

– This experience should serve us so that Argentina does not fall back into these policies. It is true that some of us have spent hours and hours in these debates and hope that people understand that there are other ways. However, I am concerned that there is another economic line in the media, the ultra-neoliberals. That they run to Macri on the right, say. They try to explain that the problems stem from a lack of depth in the adjustments made by Macri.

_The line (José Luis) Espert and (Javier) Milei would it be among others?

"Yes, they are dangerous because they're trying to install that Macri's failure was" populist "or progressive. Something completely wrong.

_ Will the presumed exit of the crisis in 2020, in the case of a presidency of Alberto F, be very different from that of Nestor Kirchner in 2003?

"It will be more complex." In 2003, you had a different international horizon, another round of commodity prices, a more favorable and favorable Latin American political context.

_Prevenir in the next 60 days in Argentina, is it pure fiction?

– Absolute. You can have very restrictive banking measures, you can have any scenario. That is why it is impossible to think now of December 11th.