From the IMF to the attempt of political agreement: Macri seeks to recover the center of the ring

Better than a week ago. This would be the place where the government feels stopped, according to the evaluation of official sources that tend to escape the enthusiasm and dramatisms. They feel that the air has changed: in recent hours, Mauricio himself Macri has contacted the main referents of the federal PJ to try to conclude a basic agreement before it starts with all the electoral fight. The gesture, late, aims to give a less tense framework to the economy. The future of this negotiation is a point of questioning – with the PJ and extended to the governors of other forces – but the only move Indicates the willingness to step out of the line of defense and generate policy.

In the ranks of the government, the diagnosis that had been made for a while seemed reasonable, but lacked answers. With the economy in a critical situation, We are no longer talking about significant improvements in the figures for the coming months, but how to contain the dollar and prices. Give a break, relax the social climate. This, coupled with the need to dispel at least partly the political uncertainty, attributed centrally to the "factor" Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, self-weight although inexplicable without calculating the presidential attrition. The tightening of power within the party appeared as a part and an expression of the same picture.

"You have to start giving political answers," he said rather largely against the diagnosis mentioned. It is true that conversations with certain references to the governors' Peronism were already underway, in a reserved way, but it was also that, at the beginning, it was a defensive step: a test that could be devoured precisely by the markets if it appears as a single element. and not in the context of a broader political movement. In the same way, domestic "magic" formulas have emerged as a change of minister. And the speculation of plan V alone has also been recycled.

Of course, the first visible sign had to do with the IMF. The political decision to play another card from a political rather than a technical game depended on the president himself. The objective of the new negotiations was essentially to allow the official intervention without equality in the game of the dollar. And that's what was faced with the speed of the crisis: Macri has therefore allowed for difficult trading, as it exhausts the margins of the agreement already reworked with the Fund.

The president's relationship with Donald Trump – and with other leaders – was again decisive for playing on the edge of agreement with the IMF. The efforts of Nicolás Dujovne and Guido Sandleris were accompanied by the agency's technicians and US authorities. Of course, not only does Macri's unique "presidential diplomacy" intervene: as Washington shows, it would translate the combination of a significant regional commitment and the special attention, preventive, for the potential contagious effect of a more acute crisis in Argentina.

No party, not even the most precious, solves the game: this is understood by many members of the government and the ruling party in a broad sense, that is to say the macrist leaders and their partners. The statements of María Eugenia Vidal and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, also radical governors, are well known. And the signs that add references to provinces that do not regulate change and that occur in local elections: the national climate reduces electoral calculations in their constituencies.

In all cases, reality has also acted in a mirror inward. Efforts to close this front have been and continue to be intense. The recent photo of the first line of the PRO, more relaxed after some measures – including the commitment to intervene on the dollar -, was broadcast as a political message. In the framework of the UCR, efforts are focused on guaranteeing an agreement between the parties that will allow to ratify without clashes, even with the badured noise, the integration to Cambiemos. Leaders who work in this branch believe that it is essential that the effectiveness of the measures announced to cushion prices and contain the fall in consumption be ensured.

In short, the fact is that support for Macri's re-election project is no longer a repetition that can only be interpreted as a defense reflex. Being cohesive then becomes another gesture that power It has also sought to give way: not only to markets, but also to politics. Difficult otherwise to initiate conversations with the opposition.

The diffusion of the negotiations with the Federal Peronism, and even more of the basic project of the so-called agreement, was presented by the Government as a foreign fact. Sergio Mbada's circle has been designated, but he has been particularly careful that this does not affect the open talks. In fact and beyond the remarks and rejections, the ruling party has managed to give a signal that is positive. "We are discussing the agenda again," a spokesman said last night.

Macri spoke yesterday to Roberto Lavagna – critical of the move and annoyed because he had not been contacted before – Juan Manuel Urtubey and Miguel Ángel Pichetto, the latter two being more open to dialogue. Mbada strongly criticized the initiative and sought to remain open to expand the call. You will see how this continues, although it is difficult to imagine a unique position. The federal PC is not a vertical space. It will also be necessary to see how another of its founding partners, Juan Schiaretti Cordovan, plays, who is going to the polls in a week.

Rogelio Frigerio will continue to try to build understanding. In fact the focus is on the governors, even beyond Peronism. Trials had already been held with the provincial chiefs of Neuquén, Río Negro and Santa Fe.

And if it works – that is, if there are more or less concrete advances – the negotiations could be open to other sectors. Not necessarily in a practical sense, but as the government's political data highlighted last night the broad support received in the business world without efforts being made to gather statements of support.

Whatever it is, Macri has just sent his message. And he personally moved some pieces to try to seal a declarative political agreement, with a focus in debt commitments, the budget balance and, in the broad sense, legal certainty. It does not seem risky, especially if he manages to regain the initiative. It then depends not only on the economy, but also on politics.