from the tomb of the great empires to the global recomposition

History has proven once again that Afghanistan is the tomb of the Great Empires. From Alexander the Great to the present day, this wild, wild country of unusual beauty defeated the West again. He had already done so three times with Great Britain, whose soldiers rest in the British cemetery in Kabul, where their names are inscribed on the reddish stones of Kyber Pass, and with the Soviet Union, after its invasion in 1980. .

In a dizzying fashion, in less than 15 days, the Taliban seized the country and its provincial capitals and won again. He first fought with ferocity and brutality, a list of Western collaborators in hand, with fierce retaliation. Then, government forces surrendered or they joined the Taliban because their officers had fled.

The Taliban began distributing letters of provisional amnesty to soldiers, which needed to be ratified in their provinces. Tribal arrangements, usually between Pashtuns, its hyper conservative ethnicity.

The structure of 20 years of Western occupation began to crumble like a sand castle in the desert, without its intelligence services being able to perceive or understand it.

They thought the militiamen would reach Kabul in 3 months. Even President Joe Biden reconfirmed his early retirement for August 31, designed by Donald Trump, who didn’t even know where Kabul was, adding that the Afghans were being trained and had to defend their country.

Which of all? Taliban and Pashtuns Divided? That of the Ghani government, an educated Pashtun, who fled so that there was no bloodshed?

That of the Warlords, who with their militias participated in the defense of their cities, until they compromise with the Taliban and join in a prospect of the future or flee? who will be the most persecuted by the Sunni Taliban?

A brutal and political mullah

The Taliban arrived at the presidential palace, under the baton of mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who was detained in Pakistan and the Americans released to negotiate with him in Doha, at the request of Donald Trump.

It was his personal victory. He is the political leader of the Taliban, after having been mujahideen against the Soviets, alongside the CIA, the Pakistani ISIS and Osama bin Laden, with Saudi and British funds. The image in the sumptuousness of the presidential palace in Kabul resembled that of the Last Supper: Baradar and his apostles, with American guns.

Baradar is a fierce guerrilla fighter and a skilled political operator. It was he who signed the Doha agreements, which the United States he saw it as a path to peace and the Taliban, to their complete victory.

In the early hours of their new government, the Taliban said they wanted to start a dialogue with foreign states. They swore not to harm Afghans or limit women’s freedoms. It is the “light” Taliban, in its “for export” version, when the West threatens not to maintain relations with them.

Kabul airport is in chaos. A withdrawal coordinated by the Americans, which goes around the world. Unforgettable images. Thousands of abandoned Afghans for which they have helped to understand their society, to translate. A mirror of the occupation.

In Britain, the military and veterans are asking the government for an explanation of the reasons for this sacrifice, where there were deaths and disabilities.

A new Yalta

China, Russia and Pakistan they are the ones who will maintain an open embassy in Kabul. They are the winners of this crisis. A sort of Yalta in Southwest Asia, with the Chinese as regional security guardians. They are determined that the Taliban ideology does not contaminate the Uyghur Islamists, Afghan neighbors, whom they have locked up in concentration camps to “Chineseize” them.

Russia will try to make people forget the brutal invasion of the USSR and their defeat. They will be partners of the Chinese and Pakistan, all “partners” in this global reconstruction enterprise.

The Taliban want to be recognized as the legitimate government from Afghanistan. After an impressive blitzkrieg across the country, its members believe they have earned the right to be considered the righteous rulers of the country.

But with flags hoisted above embassies and most foreign diplomats now back in their home capitals, the group will not be making their wish come true. After spending two decades fighting the group, NATO countries they won’t suddenly legitimize the Taliban recognize its power.

The most the Taliban can hope for is to reluctantly accept their victory.

With a border of 700 kilometers and more than millions of Afghan refugees, Shia Iran will have a good neighborly relationship. But the Taliban are Sunnis. There may be tensions with the Revolutionary Guards, who now wield power in Tehran.

Pakistan has been a historic ally as well as its intelligence service (ISIS) and the army, which allowed the survival of the Taliban and their refuge in Queta, in Balochistan, where their Shura operated.

Isolated but not alone

The Taliban will be isolated from the West but not from the international scene. We’ll have to see who recognizes them in the Persian Gulf and what will be the attitude of Saudi Arabia, which finances Pakistan and its economic tragedies.

The Taliban office in Qatar will be critical. They are not going to shut it down. It will serve as a back door to all kinds of negotiations. The Taliban could meet with Western officials, NGOs offering humanitarian aid and multinational organizations.

No country with interests will break this link, initiated by Great Britain, which fears destabilization and the export of terrorists to the kingdom. There will be no official financial, health or humanitarian aid. But security and terrorism worry Westerners. These negotiations will take place in peace in Doha.

We do not yet know the makeup of the new Taliban administration. The victorious fundamentalists They are in a phase of appeasement, facing a society that fears them and does not want to return to the Middle Ages.

The Taliban government will declare an Islamic emirate. It is still too early to know its format. Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai is in contact with the Taliban in order to bring peace to the country.

Karzai, a polyglot Pashtun leader, trained in the United States and India, who served as President of Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014, said he was on a three-member council, who worked to peacefully transfer power to the militants.

In an interview with the BBCKarzai said the council has had contact with Taliban leaders and will coordinate with them. “The important thing is the life and safety of all the Afghan people and our goal is to achieve this.

“The Taliban have told me that they have appointed people to focus on the security of the city, and I hope there will be more progress on Monday,” he said.

The council also includes Hezb-e Islami party leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a former warlord turned politician, and the chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, theto the former right-hand man of Ahmad Shah Massoud, the Afghan leader assassinated by al-Qaeda on the eve of the September 11 attacks.

PB