Fuel prices are at least 30% behind suppliers

On October 23, 2017, day of the liberalization of the fuel market ordered by Mauricio Macri, the liter of super gasoline YPF in the city of Buenos Aires cost $ 21.71, with a dollar $ 17.60 and a barrel of Brent crude to $ 57.59.

After the freeze decreed by President Mauricio Macri, the liter of super quotes $ 43.71 at most YPF stations in Buenos Aires, with a large exchange rate generated $ 46.69 – including the recent 3.3% easing – and frozen crude oil $ 59.

But Brent is quoting today $ 62.20 and the wholesale exchange rate reached 56.28 dollars on Monday. With these figures, the delay is about 27%, not counting the impending tax increases, which should have an additional impact of 4% on the third quarter inflation.

The import value of a barrel of crude oil in Argentina in pesos:

• In October 2017, it was $ 1,013 (before liberalization of the market)
• In August 2019 it was $ 2,754 (price frozen by decree)
• In September 2019 it is from $ 3,500 (current market price today, backlogged $ 746)

From 2017 until the price freeze, gasoline has increased by more than 130%. In 2018, fuel prices underwent 14 updates, with an average increase of 75.4% in the super version. This year, until the freeze in August, the oil companies have adjusted their prices five times: the Premium has accumulated a rise of 47.5%, the regular gasoline of 51.7%, the Premium diesel (G3 ) 60.9% and the common (G2) 65.7%.

If the average delay of 31% in the super is applied, the capital liter should exceed $ 57.

If we only take into account local oil, the delay in the fuels is less

Carlos Gold, president of the confederation gathering nearly 5,000 stations, said the delay was about 25%, but it could still increase by a few points. "If only the import parity is taken as a reference for the calculation, the value is surely higher. But this is not the parameter to take, because it does not correspond to the local reality"stressed the businessman Correntino.

"All fuels sold in the country are not originally imported.On the contrary, about 10% or 12% of the products sold in the country are originally imported, mainly premium diesel products," Gold explained to the consultation of this media.

"We are talking about 25%, considering that the product is refined with local crude oil obtained at a parity export price minus the retentions, which is now 42 US dollars or so. US $ 43. There is indeed a delay, but we must be careful in their badessment "he stressed.

Concern about the supply of fuel and the application of quotas to paper mills

President of the Federation of Fuel Distributors of the Center of the Argentine Republic (Fecac), Gabriel Bornoroni estimated that the delay averaged 38%. The liter of super gasoline should therefore reach 66.84 dollars in Cordoba.

At the same time, he warned that "oil companies do not provide" the domestic market. "There are flagless petrol stations that have not been refueled for four days. There are thousands of white flag stations that are out of stock and those are in villages, in small towns, that give fuel to citizens, ambulances, police to firefighters, "he said. La Red, a businessman from Cordoba.

"The oil companies must also be part of the effort, YPF is the one who makes the most of these efforts and there are other oil companies who are turning their heads away. 39; Energy to show firmness to apply the law of supply, "said the head of Fecac.

Bornoroni explained that the oil companies charged service stations a product delivery quota based on the average sales of the previous three months. Thus, if paper manufacturers demand above this level, they charge $ 4 more per liter.

"They sell you the quota they've established and not a liter more." If you go over that quota (in stationery) There is a price premium. Then nobody goes out to look for a customer. White flag service stations are fuel-free four days ago "said the paper maker.

Government offers grants in exchange for abandonment of judgment

The government is maintaining the freeze on domestic prices for the time being and, according to the Minister of Transport, William DietrichJust on weekends, we will have a clearer picture to make a decision.

While waiting for the management of Mauricio Macri announced that it would make available to the oil companies and provinces about $ 1,740 million in subsidies to compensate for the delay in the measures taken. Biofuel plants offered a 6% surcharge on the August price ($ 33,618 per ton). To be able to receive money, the executive has demanded that they give up any potential lawsuits against the state in local or international courts.

Energy offers $ 116.10 per barrel produced to producers (who retain 88% of that money) and 12% to the provinces owning the deposits. Vista Oil & Gas and the governors of Rio Negro and Nequen have already rejected it. The producers of biodiesel would follow the same path, which will be compensated for about $ 7 million.