Generalized run on the financial market | Der …

The central bank sold Wednesday about $ 367 million contain the exchange rate. This was not successful. The dollar has reached 60.17 pesos and marked an increase of 1.51 pesos, up 2.5 percent. Monetary authorities over the past two days have sacrificed $ 678 million of reserves without being able to moderate devaluation expectations. For this Thursday, another day of volatility is expected. On 24-hour platforms, the currency continued to climb to 62 pesos after Treasury announcements. The economic team announced that it would continue draw of the bookings.

Country risk It is one of the clearest indicators to understand the dimension of the financial crisis in the domestic market. This index was located in 2112 units. This represents an increase of 111 points from the previous day. The bonds that fell the most were short-term. The 2020 Bonar has fallen about 14% and is $ 46. This implies that it already works below 50% parity. Country risk is one of the highest in recent decades and is at levels similar to those recorded in October 2001 before the convertibility epidemic.

Long-term securities posted significant losses. The decline of Argentina 2037 with a decline of 7.6% and the Discount 2033 with a decline of 6.3 were highlighted. This flight of local badets This ended up accelerating an emergency measure of the economic team. It was decided to extend the terms of the Letes and Lecap maturities and the voluntary exchange of sovereign bonds in the short and medium term was announced.

This announcement was made after the close of trading and the key question is what impact will this have on the opening of the stock market on Thursday. Reading optimistic ensures that large funds accept the maturity of debt with no loss of capital or coupon. The pessimistic They indicate that, for the institutional investor, it is a baldazo of cold water: the obligatory exchange of short-term securities (in currencies and pesos) and will reinforce the expectations in terms of market devaluation. In digital banks, the price of the dollar rose by two pesos after the announcements.

Reservations and deposits

The plant continues to have great difficulty maintaining the level of reserves. This Tuesday they were located in $ 56.950 million and marked a decline of $ 523 million in the day. So far this week, $ 1309 million has been lost and since the beginning of August, a decline of 10 949 million euros.

This last figure represents about 20% of the central dollars. This is an alarming rate of fall if it is projected in the short term. The agency in charge of Guido Sandleris would not have money in the reserves in less than six months. The number of swap interventions this week also raises concerns. Nearly 680 million dollars were sold. This figure would now be enough to buy 2 of the 10 shares of the oil company YPF on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange.

The monetary authority is facing a series of badets that turn on alarms. he risk of insolvency It increases because no one wants to leave their money in the financial system. The decline in foreign currency deposits in the private sector This is one of the main symptoms. They stood at $ 29,326 million on Friday, August 23 (latest data available) and recorded a loss of $ 199 million from the previous day. Since the previous Friday to the OSP has accumulated a decline of 3174 million. Savers have been withdrawing foreign currency from their bank accounts for two weeks. Production is at a rate close to $ 300 million a day.

New risks

The measure of reperfilamiento of the economic equipment will make it possible to release currencies of the reserves. These resources can be used to intervene in the place of exchange. Treasury officials said that one of the main objectives was to maintain the exchange rate around 60 pesos, and then avoid the volatility of parity. The main problem is that there are no measures to control capital flows. Investors who still have pesos are more interested in selling reserves at 60 pesos and dollars. Reserves of nearly $ 5 billion that will not be used to pay short-term debt run the risk of eventually financing a new cycle of losses on foreign exchange markets.

The actions This is another key indicator for measuring investor uncertainty. On Tuesday, they rose in pesos but again recorded high losses measured in foreign currency. Companies listed in New York fell to 6.1%. The fall of these businesses so far this year is alarming. Of the reds, 66% are Supervielle losses, 64% from Central Puerto, 54 from Loma Negra and 37% from Ternium.