Germany starts to say goodbye to Angela Merkel | Sunday, they will elect the future sovereign after 16 years of mandate as chancellor

From berlin

This Sunday, the federal elections in Germany, after 16 uninterrupted years in office of the Cancel Angela Merkethe. Very in his style, without drum or trumpet, neither high nor pragmatist (both on the part of the candidates and the population in general with street demonstrations which are only small neat posters on the public highway).

There are seven political forces in conflict, three of which specifically will have to come to an agreement, as neither party is strong enough not to depend on future coalitions. Central axis of post-war German policy, with candidates who add or lose voters, not so much because of their successes, their aura or their speech, but because they make fewer mistakes.

The favorite, a social democrat

Given the situation, for the moment the polls give as the winner the measured candidate of the German Social Democratic Party (SPD), although they predict that he will need the support of other parties to be able to form a new government. The polls show Olaf Scholz one in four votes (25% of the intention to vote). A former member of the Bundestag (the German parliament) for 13 years, Scholz was Minister of Labor and Social Affairs and he currently holds the post of Federal Vice-Chancellor and Minister of Finance. In addition to being seven years old, since 2011, the mayor of Hamburg, one of the most prosperous and wealthy cities in Germany.

Its main rival is Armin Laschet, from Merkel’s party and coalition candidate Christian Democratic Union (CDU) – Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) with 20 percent. Laschet was also part of the Bundestag and the European Parliament, but arrives in the elections with low popularity, thanks to a new recent mistake: a video that has gone viral in which he appears laughing in an act of support for those affected by the floods de Last July, they hit the federal state of which he is Prime Minister.

While the figures collected so far, give the third position with 16% of intention to vote to a bland Los Verdes candidate Annalena Baerbock (Die Grünen). Baerbock has co-directed the game for over 10 years. Member of Parliament since 2013, she has worked in her party’s offices in Brussels, but this is another “lukewarm and lack of speech” to say from many who certainly does not count on patronage even within her own party.

The polls give 13% to the Liberal Party (FDP) and its representative, Christian Lindner, whose votes could be decisive for the formation of the government. Lindner was a member of the North Rhine-Westphalia Regional Parliament and the Bundestag and was a candidate for his political career in various electoral processes.

Then with 11%, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, with the duo Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel. The former is part of the most radical wing of his party and presents himself as an “ordinary citizen” to the German electorate. For her part, Weidel is a doctor in economics who is very critical of the European Union. Finally, the left (Die Linke) arrives with the 6% attributed to it in the last polls.

The pulse in the street

View of the Germans on foot. Or rather, although it sounds cliché, by bike. Which is not a minor data, because on these sides, environmental concern move the needle a lot and lower the thumb of more than one candidate. Climate protection is one of the main priorities of German voters. A concern that is only increasing due to the pandemic and the recent surprise disaster caused by flooding in North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate in mid-July.

Especially the youngest, who have not seen any governess other than Merkel and who in general, although appreciated for her stability and moderation, accuse of not having kept their promises or of having been at least lukewarm with decisions in this area.

“Slow and not at all progressive in terms of climate change”, Gunther Fischer, a 42-year-old German teacher, responds. Concrete examples? “He promised to cut emissions when we continue to burn coal and change the auto industry in favor of renewables and we are still one of the countries furthest behind in this area in favor of big industry than I dare not question, not even in regulating speed limits on highways (something which in addition to being dangerous, generates three times more pollution). Also subsidize organic production and gradually put an end to anything that was not renewable energy.

“Coal is a thing of the past, but in our country still a quarter of our electricity depends on it. Something that embarrasses all citizens, at least in cities like Berlin where we support and promote the consumption of organic food and products, a sustainable lifestyle and vegan products and restaurants which have earned us the well-deserved environmental reputation. but thank you to our work and individual conscience, ”adds Inge Jansen, a 35-year-old gastronome.

Other young people consulted in the street, observe the challenge of digitization (just one fact which is not minor: even today the internet signal is weak in the cities and there is no Wi-Fi. in most public transport).

Other problems which concern the Germans on foot?

Obviously the post-pandemic economy, with a middle class which, oddly enough, is also threatened. Especially for the debts that the Covid has caused in an economy with a fiscal budget without deficit. For that Much of the debate revolves around minimum wages and taxes.

Still in the European Union and its agreements and its migration policy, which Merkel has kept tooth and nail.

Future alliances

Considering things like that, “Jamaica”, “Kenya”, “Stoplight” … the colors of possible coalitions seem to be the most vibrant of the electoral campaign in Germany, in a contest that wins whoever takes the least risks or declares.

It is because for several years, in particular the press, use certain national flags to describe possible coalitions. Parties have always been identified by colors. Merkel’s CDU is shown in black; the Social Democrats of the SPD, red; the Greens, of course, green; the liberals of the FDP, yellow, and Die Linke (the left), the post-communist party, with a darker red. Thus, the future coalitions are located between so-called Jamaica (CDU-CSU, Greens and Liberals), Kenya (CDU-CSU, SPD and Greens), Germany (CDU-CSU, SPD and Liberals) and the so-called traffic light (SPD, Greens and Liberals).

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party does not enter any due to the strict cordon sanitaire applied to it, which means that no one is even considering testing the training.

Complex scenario, since, in such circumstances, a Jamaican union, for example, would have to combine the interests of the FDP – pro-company, in favor of the reduction of the taxes and the budgetary rigor – with the ecologists, who in their electoral program carry an ambitious program of investment and public expenditure to accelerate the energy transition.