Global arms trade declines for the first time since 2005 | International

The global arms trade has stopped growing. For the first time since 2005, in the past five years, fewer weapons have been purchased than in the previous five years (-0.5%). The decline in Russian and Chinese exports contrasts with the increase in sales in the United States, France and Germany, according to data released Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). Purchases are increasing in the Middle East, North Africa, Japan and South Korea.

Alexandra Kuimova, co-author of Sipri’s annual report on the global arms trade, clearly sees that “the pandemic has had its impact, both in the distribution and in the signing of new agreements”. However, the analyst points out that there are other previous reasons influencing the slight decline: the various national production programs that have been launched, or the drastic changes in the relationship between some traditional partners, such as the case of Ankara. and Washington. The calculation system used by Sipri does not refer to actual selling prices, but is based on the production costs of each device. The Swedish research institute estimates that the annual value of the global arms trade has exceeded 75 billion euros in recent years.

The United States increased its sales by 15% and strengthened its hegemonic position: almost 40% of the weapons imported during the five-year period analyzed (2016-2020) were manufactured in the United States. Washington’s exports are already almost double that of Moscow, after a few years at the start of the last decade, when they were on the verge of equalization. Among the 96 American buyers, the rise in acquisitions in Israel (335%) and Qatar (208%) stands out.

Russia’s exports have been hit hard by falling demand from India, the world’s largest arms importer between 1990 and 2019. Narendra Modi’s government has cut its purchases of Russian military equipment by more than half. , with the aim of stimulating the development of domestic industry. Some deals with China, Algeria and Egypt have cushioned the blow that the collapse in Indian demand has caused Russian factories. Delays in production plans and tensions with China and Pakistan lead analysts to expect purchases from New Delhi to Moscow to resume soon.

After decades of exponential growth and recent years of slowdown, sales in China have fallen by 8%. The difficulties of market access for the Gulf monarchies have an impact on Beijing’s plans. Its main buyer, Pakistan, has significantly reduced its imports, although Islamabad recently approved one of its largest Chinese arms purchases, which will not be fully delivered until 2028.

France in particular increased its exports (44%). Pieter Wezeman, researcher at Sipri, points out that the increase is mainly due to the realization, “after two decades of attempts”, to sell Rafale fighter jets. Despite the export of arms to nearly 70 countries, India, Egypt and Qatar received 59% of French material.

Germany’s exports accounted for 5.5% of the total (very similar to China’s), after increasing by more than 20%, mainly due to the sale of submarines. Unlike Paris, Berlin banned the sale of arms to Saudi Arabia in 2018. South Korea acquired a quarter of German-made weapons. The top five exporters – the United States, Russia, France, Germany and China – accounted for more than three-quarters of total sales.

The cases of France and Germany differ from those of other large arms manufacturers in Western Europe. UK sales fell 27% (largest among 10 largest exporters); those of Italy, 22%, and those of Spain, 8%.

The decline in the global arms trade was not more marked due to the rebound in purchases in some countries. Saudi Arabia has established itself as the world’s largest importer by increasing its purchases by 61%. Qatar, blocked by its neighbors until last January, has multiplied its purchases of military equipment by five.

One of the countries that supplied arms to Doha was Turkey. Ankara continues to develop its domestic industry, expanding its export capacity (30% more) while reducing its dependence on foreign countries. Recep director Tayyip Erdogan defied his NATO partners by receiving the Russian S-400 air defense system, prompting Washington to suspend supply to the F-35 fighters. Turkey’s purchases from the United States have fallen by more than 80%. “Pressure from Western countries is forcing Ankara to look for new suppliers. It’s impossible to predict where this drift will end, ”says Wezeman.

In addition, Turkey’s friction with Greece and Egypt over hydrocarbons in the eastern Mediterranean has meant that Athens and Cairo are strengthening their naval capabilities. The regime of Abdelfatá al Sisi, the third largest beneficiary in the world, bought 136% more weapons than in the previous five years. Kuimova underlines that “the lack of transparency and the unmet gaps in the official accounts” raise many doubts on the mode of financing of the material acquired by Cairo. Imports from Egypt, Algeria and Morocco accounted for almost 90% of those from Africa.

Two technology powers, Israel and South Korea, have significantly increased their sales (59% and 210% respectively) and are among the top 10 exporters. In addition, imports of both have increased by more than 50%. Japan, after years of tension with China over maritime disputes, has acquired more than twice as much military equipment as in the previous five years.