Global warming: scientists warn that it will be stronger than expected

The results of Investigations by the French team point to a worsening of the situation compared to the latest report presented in 2012 that projected a temperature increase of 4.8 degrees Celsius in 2100.in the worst scenario simulated.

Scientists attribute to it a stronger reaction to the climate of increasing greenhouse gases than the previous study.

"According to the most pessimistic scenario (rapid economic growth fueled by fossil fuels), the increase in global average temperature would reach 6 or 7 degrees Celsius in 2100 and would exceed the previous estimates by more than one degree." said the scientists.

Only one of the socio-economic scenarios, that of a panorama of international cooperation that gives priority to sustainable development, would achieve the goals of warming to 2 degrees by this date.

The climate simulation models used have been applied in Europe and in the Indian Ocean, where experts have been able to more realistically represent phenomena such as heat waves or cyclones.

Data was also obtained through technical improvements, such as more accurate spatial resolution or modeling of different sectors of the climate system (ocean, atmosphere, glaciers, etc.).

In addition, simulations have made it possible to study with greater reliability the climatic conditions of France and Western Europe in recent years, where scientists have found that heat waves are becoming more and more important. more frequent and had evidently increased in recent decades.

They also confirm that, regardless of the socio-economic scenario used, heat waves will continue in the coming decades.