Global warming: the world has taken a “catastrophic” course | UN warning ahead of November climate summit in Glasgow

Along with the pandemic, the other conflict on a global scale and of structural origin is climate change. The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, scheduled for Friday a “catastrophic” horizon for the planet when, at the end of the century, the average temperature increased by 2.7 ° C. And, in this sense, he stressed that the promises that the States have made with the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions “go in the wrong direction”.

In this context, the objective of limiting global warming to 2 ° C (and preferably below one and a half degrees) compared to the pre-industrial era – agreed in the Paris Agreement (2015) – would become obsolete. . At the beginning of November, the Glasgow Climate Summit (COP26) and the American president, Joe biden, asks “to carry the highest ambitions” because “time is running out”. From the White House, he noted: “We must all act. We must act nowWith this, he shows a face opposite to his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, who pulled the United States out of the deal because it “was hurting the American economy.”

“Guterres took as a reference some of the conclusions of the general report of the IPCC (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that we published in August, in which the studies on the current state of the climate and projections futures were On this occasion, we proposed five illustrative scenarios, in order to estimate the possible emission situations (from very low to very high) over the coming decades. The degree and a half of warming compared to the values ​​of the industrial age will be exceeded by 2040. Currently, we are already at 1.1 ° C“, Express Caroline Vera, doctor in atmospheric sciences and researcher at the Center for Research on the Sea and the Atmosphere (CIMA). Then he continues: “If we collectively honor all the commitments that governments made during the Paris Agreement, we would be in the scenario evoked by Guterres, which would bring us at the end of the 21st century to 2.7 ° C. of global warming. . Something I want to stress So it’s not the worst of times. ” The worst of cases (i.e. if the world decided to do nothing to combat the problem), instead of 2.7 ° C, project an increase of 4.4 ° C by the end of the century.

Context and promises

The document discussed by the UN referents and cited by Guterres is linked to an assessment of the commitments that the 195 countries made during the Paris Agreement. As of July 30, 2021, nations had to update their promises but only 113 kept them. China and Russia, for example, are among the powers that have yet to renew their intentions. While the report states that by 2030 emissions are expected to decrease by 12% compared to 2010; By 2030, by contrast, an increase of around 16% is expected.

Last month – as Vera pointed out – the IPCC, an international body that assesses scientific knowledge related to the region, presented the latest summary for policymakers. The work (carried out by 234 authors from 65 countries) evaluated data published in more than 14,000 scientific publications over three years and, among other things, allowed us to understand that many of the changes that have occurred in recent decades as a result of human intervention are irreversible. One of the axes that researchers around the world have highlighted is that the rate of heating accelerates, and that the temperatures of the Earth’s surface have risen more rapidly over the past half-century than in any other period in the past 2,000 years.

States are preparing for COP 26, a meeting during which they must redouble their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. “Global warming depends on gases that have accumulated from the start of the industrial age to date. If we stopped all emissions now, warming would continue at a slower rate, but we have to keep in mind that carbon dioxide persists in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. it is urgent and necessary that over the next decade nations propose ambitious, rapid, effective and sustained actions. We are still on time “, underlines the researcher.

The first climate summit was held in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro. For this year’s meeting, authorities are expected to come up with more ambitious plans to limit the damage their capitalist economies are causing to the planet. 30,000 people from more than 200 countries are expected to arrive in Glasgow in the first days of November.

Geopolitics and inequalities

Although there is widespread awareness – based on scientific evidence accumulated over decades – about the impact of human activities on climate change, the efforts do not appear to be sufficient. The continued emission of greenhouse gases, in this line, is leading mankind to the worst outcome. According to specialists, the phenomenon is easy to understand: even if the gases are emitted in China, the United States or anywhere on the globe, the atmosphere spreads them all over the planet in a few weeks. This makes global warming a geopolitical issue And, as has been warned of late with access to covid vaccines, what prevails is inequality.

In 2009, core countries pledged $ 100 billion annually to developing countries. The objective of this support was for them to be able to adapt and deploy strategies to mitigate the impacts caused by climate change. However, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), between 2018 and 2019, funding to collaborate with the most needy amounted to 79.6 billion.

“We need to move towards more sustainable societies, which are regulated by co-benefits: reducing climate change, because we have access to better health, soil and water. We need a change in the model of production and consumption», Notes the current chief of staff of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation. It will be necessary to replace the use of fossil fuels resulting from an energy transition which uses sources less polluting for the environment. For this, it is not enough to individual actions (separate waste, recycling), but a transformation of production models is necessary Capitalism has tightened the cord and, unfortunately, it is on the verge of breaking.