Guaidó returns to Venezuela and opposition fears losing momentum

SANTIAGO – What will happen to the leader of the Venezuelan opposition and the movement that he now leads that Venezuela reigns?

This question has been asked all over South America since Juan Guaidó left his country more than a week ago, challenging the ban on residence imposed by Venezuelan courts to embark on a largely improvised tour of the continent.

His supporters are eagerly awaiting his return, as his persistent absence has raised questions about the impetus of the movement he initiated.

"I think it has confused people because it left us without a map, and we risk losing confidence in their project," said María Durán, who works for a non-governmental organization in Caracas, the Venezuelan capital. "There are people who ask:" What happened? "

Originally, Guaidó had promised to return on February 23rd. He planned to return with the cargo of humanitarian aid to cross a military blockade at the borders ordered by President Nicolás Maduro. However, Maduro halted its attempt with tear gas and rubber bullets and closed border bridges with Venezuela.

The opposition then announced the possibility of a return after Guaidó met with US Vice President Mike Pence on February 25 and other regional leaders in Bogotá, Colombia. Maduro responded in an interview to ABC News where he said that he could arrest Guaidó for breaking the law.

Guaidó set the morning of March 4 as the deadline for his return. This Sunday, March 3, he indicated on his Twitter account that he was leaving Ecuador for Venezuela. In another message, he made a report on an Internet show to give an overview of his tour and announce the next actions.

Each additional day of Guaidó outside the country is more likely to lose the unity of the opposition parties, which have a long history of fractures, said Geoff Ramsey, an badyst at the Washington Office of Latin American Affairs (WOLA).

"At this point, the opposition does not need another leader in exile," Ramsey said. "The longer the guaidó spend a long time outside Caracas, the more the opposition will become empirical."

Guaidó spent most of last week touring the continent, with stops in Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina and Ecuador. These regional allies are among the fifty countries that have recognized him as president, instead of Maduro, who was re-elected for a second term in January after an election widely considered undemocratic.

Despite this, Guaidó remains a stateless leader and the return to Venezuela could lead him to prison.

"They could imprison him," said Laurence Castro, an opposition MP from the Guaidó political party, who remained outside of Venezuela until the opposition leader returned. "But we must do everything we can to get in."

The Donald Trump government has threatened repercussions on the Maduro government if Guaidó were imprisoned. But Maduro has already challenged the United States with his arrests, which included the continued detention of Mexican-American journalist Jorge Ramos during a conflictual interview. The Maduro government has also already arrested Guaidó and sent police to his home.

Guaidó's international tour seems to be an effort to keep this from happening again.

The tour of the regional capitals also gave the opposition time to regroup after a painful defeat of the aid.

Guaidó had let hope to his supporters, who suffered severe food shortages, that an "avalanche of aid" flooded the country with food and medicine and that Maduro's army would turn against him. . However, armed gangs and military loyal to the government easily blocked help and sympathizers could only throw stones to express their anger.

The opposition faced more setbacks when it tried to escalate the conflict by urging Venezuela's neighbors to intervene militarily to overthrow Maduro. At a meeting on February 25 in Bogotá, most of the leaders present rejected the call. The Trump government has ruled out the use of the military to force aid into the country.

With Maduro's firm control over the borders and the military defections that now total only a few hundred, the opposition is forced to accept that the leadership of the government seems to be more resilient than the one described by Guaidó.

Ricardo Reyes, a journalist in Caracas, said that in Venezuela, this message had begun to flow.

"A transition process is not easy and sometimes takes longer than expected, especially when your plan A does not work," he said.

Given Maduro's continued control, the international community is considering making concessions.

On February 27, the Secretary General of the Organization of American States, Luis Almagro, one of the main international supporters of Guaidó, said that he would not oppose that Maduro re-run for president if new elections were free and fair. Almagro had previously joined those who demanded that the president leave office.

During his stopovers abroad, Guaidó was received at the head of the state, which contrasts markedly with his secret and secret departure from Venezuela to evade the ban on traveling.

His journey began in Brazil, where he met the new president, Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist who called the leftist people "red proscribed." Guaidó also had talks with Lenin Moreno, center-left president of Ecuador, to show that he had support from both sides of the political division.

In Argentina, Guaidó was greeted by a crowd of Venezuelans, many of whom escaped the economic crisis during which Maduro was president.

"There is no turning back," Guaidó told a crowd gathered in a square in Buenos Aires. "The only return we will make is when I get home, and I can promise you it will be soon."

Ana Vanessa Herrero contributed to this report from Caracas, Venezuela.

* Copyright: 2019 The New York Times News Service