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The Buenos Aires curve of coronavirus case It came flat or in a steep descent. But in the last days this bottom slowed down and on Friday there were three times more cases than those recorded on Tuesday and 50% more than the previous Friday.
According to the daily reports of the government of Buenos Aires, Monday and Tuesday, the positives were around 160. This Friday, meanwhile, they almost tripled, with 466. And Thursday, they had approached 400. On Friday, December 4, the cases were 310.
From the City’s Health Ministry, they argue that it is still too early to do an analysis. “The increase in cases has been observed in the last two or three days. We have to see how this continues next week, ”said a spokesperson for this portfolio. And he adds, “There are always many factors together, there is never just one. For that you have to see how it evolves to know if it is only a delay in the loading of files, underlines the same spokesperson.
It is in the load of these data that the variation could be for the biochemist Santiago Olszevicki, who advises to look at the daily averages over a week or fifteen days instead of seeing day by day figures.
The long weekend could have affected the numbers, as fewer tests are done and fewer cases are loaded. Photo Luciano Thieberger
“The on weekends and holidays there are always fewer tests because the laboratories are not functioning at their maximum capacity. Fewer cases are also loaded, because there are fewer clerks. So if there was an atypically low Monday or Tuesday because it was a holiday, then there were atypically high Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays, ”Olszevicki explains.
It is also under study the possible effect of crowds like the wake of Diego Maradona, the river celebrations on Wednesday or the protests for and against legal abortion on Thursday.
“I see it for 72 hours, cases began to increase. The authorities say one thing and publicly do another, ”laments the head of infectious diseases at a hospital in Buenos Aires, who prefers to keep his name in reserve.
For the infectologist, “these contradictory messages and the realization of massive events like the wake of Maradona generate that many people relax and be carefree, or think they are lying to you. Now we have to see in ten days what happened to the long weekend ”. In the same health portfolio, they admit that “so many people together add a health risk”, but they also point out that “you have on your side that these are open-air concentrations”.
We are still studying whether crowds, like the Maradona wake, can have an effect on the contagion curve. Photo Juan Manuel Foglia
Rodrigo Quiroga, bioinformatician and research assistant at CONICET, observes rather that “too many days have passed since the wake of Maradona and no major effects were observed. If that had happened, it would have been detected between seven and ten days later ”.
However, he acknowledges that the decline in cases is slowing and associates it with less and less precautions are taken in general, and not just during a specific event. “If we make the care more flexible, the positives can increase again, even now in summer. This is already happening in Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay, Paraguay and Chile. We follow a very high number of daily casesTherefore, if they are raised again from such a high floor, it will be difficult ”.
A few days before the holidays, when millions of people will be reunited with their loved ones, care must be more topical than ever. “We recommend don’t do any social gatherings this Monday at Christmas, to arrive as calmly as possible and not to infect our relatives, many of whom are over 60 years old and therefore in a risk group, ”warns Quiroga.
A few days ago, the AGC closed a bowling alley in San Telmo where a party was being held without social distancing.
In case social gatherings take place, it is suggested to allow at least five days between one and the other, which are outdoors, there are less than ten people, all wear chin straps and do not share glasses, bottles or companions.
The timing doesn’t matter either: it is better during the day and not at night. “The virus that is present and infectious in aerosols, those airborne droplets that can transmit the virus, is infectious for much less time when there are high temperatures, high humidity and a high UV index,” explains Quiroga.
The most sensible attitude then is continue to take care of yourself and others so that Christmas and the New Year are reasons for celebration and not for worry.
NS
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