Hernán Lacunza: "Argentina will not grow if we do not find a solution to the Conurbano" – 03/02/2019

– On Route 6 linking La Plata to Zárate in the metropolitan area, it is estimated that out of a total of 45 million inhabitants, 15 million live, or one third of the population. In San Pablo, this ratio is 11% and in Mexico, 16%. Buenos Aires is the most macro-cephalic demographic, as experts say. How is a provincial economy doing with this demographics?

– The answer has two parts. On the one hand like the others. The variables are given by macroeconomics, for example inflation and growth. On the other hand, the province accounts for about 40% of the other variables. 40% of production, collection, employment, students in schools and patients in the country's hospitals, 48% of poor children and 42% of the total poor, 50% of prisoners in prisons and so on. By that I mean that there is no possibility of differentiating so much with respect to the conduct of the economy of a province like Buenos Aires, because it may be Neuquén who has Vaca Muerta.

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– Buenos Aires is therefore related to the fate of the nation?

– It's like that. But it is also the opposite: there is no way to differentiate the performance of the country from that of the province. I believe that there is no nation without a province and that there is no province without a nation in the badysis of economic policy.

– There are provinces and governors who boast of the management of their accounting and even speak of "models", in the name of federalism the idea of ​​nation is lost?

– In Argentina, federalism is often confused with "every man for himself". There is this idea of ​​"local village" that does not understand that in Argentina, there will be no development possible if we do not find a solution to this Conurbano. I'm insistent It's not that with this Conurbano, there is no province possible, there is no country possible and there will be no interior possible for a model that speaks with this level of poverty in Buenos Aires. It is not that Salta, San Juan or Neuquén can be saved alone. They will be inexorably condemned to the fact that 30% of Argentineans are poor and 42% of them living in the suburbs.

– What do you think of the division of the province?

– It seems to me that we must badyze it carefully because, of course, for historical and demographic reasons, Argentina has not experienced extensive development by its territory. From the colony the country has concentrated its activity in these pampas. It was first by the port, then by the railroad and we developed asymmetrically. Sometimes political divisions contribute. Divide the province can be an idea to think about. Not for now but for the future. Also the transfer of the capital. There are success stories in the more geographically dispersed development world that have arisen from previous political definitions.

– Someone might say that María Eugenia Vidal's office handles a lot of things from the city of Buenos Aires, driving Buenos Aires should not be longer in La Plata?

– It's not like that, it depends on each wallet. We interact with the nation all the time because what this sphere has repercussions. In my case, I have constant relations with the central government and the financial world. But Cristian Ritondo is always in La Plata, Santiago Lopez Medrano, of the Social Development, he spends his time in Conurbano and Joaquín de la Torre at the top of a car going around the interior of the province. Everyone settles their wallet where it is most effective.

– How is the fact that the governments of the nation and the province belong to the same party?

– Many years ago, they are of the same political sign. But before they got it wrong and the pettiness of every leader prevailed and not today.

– Living in the province is more expensive than in the capital?

– No. The basic basket in the interior of the province is cheaper. And the property tax, for example, is lower.

– But in the city, there is no municipal tax and real estate rose by 38%.

– We have reduced gross revenues of 18,000 million pesos in 2018 and of 10,000 million dollars in 2019. And the increase in real estate is lower than the inflation rate of 39%. ;last year. One hectare worth $ 6,000 last year has the same value in dollars. This means that the pesos are doubled and the tax has increased by 38% in pesos. The tax burden has decreased. In addition, this year will increase the income of the field.

– But people are seeing their income fall and taxes increase.

– One thing is the power of buying the salary and another is the tax burden. The tax burden is decreasing because two years ago, a supermarket monk of US $ 1,000 paid $ 110 in gross income. Now $ 85. I do not do the zonzo: in a context of recession and contraction of the market, it goes unnoticed. But that's where we have to go.

– How much time do you spend discussing parities?

– 20%, pretty.

– Because?

– My task concerns the province's hacienda, budget, expenses, taxes, debts, municipalities, relations with mayors and the national government, as well as statistics. Of course, parity too. But this task becomes intense during years of high inflation.

– You can not pay better wages?

– The resources are public and when we can not pay for what we want, we can not badume a similar commitment. The parity of public sector employees does not have the same logic as that of metalworkers or transport workers, which ultimately constitutes a distributive offer between the employers 'and the workers' sectors when the supply is legitimate for appropriation. of advantage. In this case, it is the taxpayer 's money.

– Does the middle clbad demand more and more public goods or is the quality provided worse and worse?

– The demand for public goods in our society tends to be higher and higher. Not only does the population demand those established by the Constitution, such as health, education, work, security and justice, which, by the way, the provision of all these services is quite unsatisfactory . Now, the state is also expected to provide energy, transportation and vaccines against yellow fever to go on holiday abroad. But someone wonders how to pay for it? In Germany, when a candidate makes promises of public works, the voter thinks about how he will pay. Not here.

– The demand for some of these public goods has declined, no? For example education.

– Yes, especially in the middle and low middle sectors. In the Conurbano has migrated to private education and this has to do with demand always looking for quality.

– The province is asking the nation for $ 20,000 million. What is this request?

– The main tax reform of this direction of Governor Vidal is that we have recovered the Fondo del Conurbano. This means that the province receives $ 70 billion a year. The fiscal compact did not provide for an automatic update of inflation for 2018 because the rate predicted at that time had been used, which was 10% for 2018. It is only since 2020 that an automatic update is applied. We are asking for an update of what we received last year, but adjusted for inflation in 2018. We calculate that we have $ 20,000 million corresponding to this concept.

– What does Dujovne say?

– That he understands it, that he understands it, but everyone has his fiscal restriction.

– Someone might tell you that the province already receives more than others.

– Two things. First, if we establish a contract with all the numbers updated for inflation except one, well, that's the update. Second, there is a question of fairness and justice. A Buenos Aires receives from the national state the third part of what amounts to a non-Buenos Aires in terms of co-participation, Fondo del Conurbano. For the national budget, the province of Buenos Aires is worth 1 dollar and the rest of the Argentines, 3 dollars. With the $ 20,000 million update, the province would receive 23% of national resources and generate 38%.

– Is this another claim?

– I do not ask to receive 38% because I have economies of scale. In the Conurbano, a route of 10 kilometers and 2 million inhabitants are served. In San Juan no. But this difference does not justify the leap from 38% to 23% that the province receives. We are 22 years late with the treatment of the law of co-participation If we continue with this division, which province will be developed?

– This year, you will pay double the debt, could you have asked for less loan?

– What we pay is not just interest. Also depreciation. The province's debt over this entire period will increase by approximately $ 2,500 million. It currently accounts for 9% of the product and 11% in the last decade. I see drills as the debt has gone up because the exchange rate has gone up. But resources are also increasing because of inflation and I do not see any complications in repayment. Could you have less debt? Yes, financial. But he would have more social debt and infrastructure.

– What do you mean?

-When we took command, we found that there was $ 30,000 million worth of infrastructure in the province between water works, routes, hospitals and schools. Over these four years, we will have invested $ 7,500,000, the fourth part. At this rate, there are four mandates to fill this gap. On December 10, 2019, everyone can photograph a school in poor condition. But he will not be able to photograph all the schools in bad condition or all the guards of the hospital.