Hernán Lacunza, the new figure that appears above the economic crisis

By MARIANO SPEZZAPRIA

@mnspezzapria

Roberto Lavagna received a post-STEP fieldwork and is convinced that he has room to develop his candidacy for the presidency. The study finds that 60% of voters in Mauricio Macri are willing to change the meaning of their vote in the October elections. And to a lesser extent, 30% of those who paid Alberto Fernández would also do so. With these figures, the former minister is resisting the pressures to reduce his postulation.

But the truth is that the third force in conflict, the federal consensus, is subject to a game of claws both by the official alliance Together for Change and Peronism united to the Front of All. First and foremost, the government needs to improve its electoral performance so that the Macri-Pichetto formula reaches at least 35% of the vote and has a chance of being voted on, in the event that Alberto and Cristina Kirchner do not exceed 45%.

Beyond the models of mathematical probability, one incarnates politics in its most pragmatic state: the mayors of Cambiemos, who have been hurt by the low social weight of President Macri, are now looking for local candidates in Lavagna to place themselves on the or encourage a cut of the ballots so that they can add the votes of Together for Change as well as those of the Federal Consensus.

Far from subscribing to this situation, Lavagna has already asked his campaign team to keep his political strength on his feet until 27 October. The election campaign was revived yesterday in the legal formalities, but strictly speaking, none of the conflicting alliances had stopped doing what it was after the OSP. The most obsessed with the verdict of the polls was the government: a new devaluation added to the electoral cimbronazo that left him in a sea of ​​doubts.

The appearance of Hernán Lacunza in the National Cabinet allowed the government to take a break. The new manager has risen to the occasion and has proposed to control the changes made by banks and companies to cauterize the bleeding reserves of the Central Bank, without harming small and medium savers. But he also managed to appease the spirit of political and economic power factors.

"It took the government almost a month to get through the economic storm that followed the WWTP"

Decree Yes, Law No

Lacunza announced the reperfilamiento of the short term debt and the sending of a project to obtain the approval of the Congress. This is only later than he has advanced with the exchange policy. In Parliament, the majority opposition blocs have no political will to badociate the government with what they see as a technical flaw, as defined by Alberto Fernández. All they are willing to do is let a DNU come into force without throwing it into the legislative arena.

It took the government almost a month to weather the economic storm after PASO. And now, Macri has to find answers at the political level: do you have a chance to climb the slope or do you have to badume that your presidency is lost? The president is disappointed by the electoral strategists who, until the August mbadacre, had won him successive elections. "We were cheated," he complained to several interlocutors.

Targeted people are, as always, Marcos Peña and Jaime Durán Barba. Until now, only official factories appeared the idea of ​​highlighting the internal differences existing in the Front of all. But it works almost like a reflex action, because we see that in the STEP, it did not obtain results. Thus, the mistakes of others are, at this stage, invaluable to the party in power. The leader Juan Grabois contributed, but his real impact is oversized.

Behind the public debate, we observe the need for the government to recover the electoral support in the rural areas supposed to be allies, but which, because of the crisis in the main cities of the region and the interior of Buenos Aires, expressed dissatisfaction with the government. Conversely, the main challenge for the opposition is to turn this vote of protest against Macri into another positive power to support a new political scene.

Alberto Fernández must accumulate a critical mbad powerful enough to deal with what he badumes to be a very difficult transition and a subsequent government conditioned by the agreement signed by Macri with the IMF in 2018. Some clues to what He would do once in the country. Power has gone in its wake this week across Spain and Portugal. Doubts were also expressed about the development of Vaca Muerta and about the relations it would be willing to maintain with the United States.

THE CASE OF PORTUGAL

In Peronism they examine the case of Portugal closely. This is why Fernández went to Lisbon to visit Prime Minister António Costa, who took the reins of the Lusitanian country with heterodoxy and found the road paved after a major adjustment and which enjoyed a great popular support. Felipe Solá participated in this meeting, which is gaining ground as Alberto's man of confidence. He was also seen with the most voted candidate at the meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, at the Palacio de La Moncloa.

The image that Alberto and Solá were trying to give to Spain is that Argentina will not reapply the economic policy of Kirchnerism, at least that of the more radicalized stage, which included the nationalization of YPF and exit through the window of the Iberian oil company. Repsol But the backpack of the past is still heavy, judging by the precautions they gave him from the head of the bank Santander, Ana Botín. This is why the economists of Frente de Todos are studying other models.

Among them circulates a thick book of former US Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, titled "The Age of Turbulence", in which they seek advice applicable to Argentina. At the moment, Alberto's economic advisers warn that Macri's management eventually moved away from the business areas that supported him and sought to deepen the dialogue with them.

The situation picture that they draw up in the Front of All camp is not encouraging: they also warn that the hyper-devalued Argentine bonds are returning to the radar of the "vulture funds". And that the next period of government does not count on the salvation of external prices. Hence the rudeness with which Alberto Fernández refers to Cambiemos' "economic failure". He does not seem to want to make the same mistake Macri, which minimizes "inheritance received".

The picture that Alberto tried to leave in Spain is that Argentina will not reapply the kirchnerist policy

For the president, the priority is now given to the stabilization of the foreign exchange market. Otherwise, you will have no chance of improving your electoral performance. The loss of Central Bank reserves in dollars could also become a political haemorrhage that would defeat not only its administration, but also that of the Alliance. Let's change electoral tools to represent non-Peronism.

"It is supposed that a political party must resist the outcome of the elections," said the governor, Maria Eugenia Vidal, who silently opposed several decisions of the national government before harming its electoral opportunities and all those of change. With this foundation, he plans the future for the scene after Macri.