How many analyze the change in their vote for the VIP vaccination scandal

The direct question synthesizes the big question on which politicians and analysts are debating today. The scandal of VIP vaccination can influence this year’s legislative elections? More precisely: the In front of all could I lose votes for this episode? The consultant Synopsis has just presented a study focusing on this central point of controversy. And that sets off an alert for the ruling party: about 20% of K respondents said analyze review your decision for polls.

The novelty appears in a national survey of 1,122 cases between February 23 and 25. The first question of Synopsis -a consulting firm created in 2015, which works for the world of politics and business- was: “¿What feeling did it generate The news that leaders and friends of officials were able to access COVID vaccines without managing their shifts accordingly? ”

It was striking, and revealing of the transversality of the question, to see how the general results did not differ too much from the cut by political affinity. In all cases “Indignation” prevailed, “anger”, “disgust”. Between the three, they collected more than 40% of the responses, both in the general table and among K voters.

The study then said: “Do you think it was just the 70 people the government released or think there are more VIP vaccinated“In this case, although there was some of the most incredulous opposition bias, the number of Frente de Todos respondents who doubted official information was also high. Almost half of this group believe that “There are many more” who snuck into the virtual queue.

And a similar percentage (49%) of those consulted who voted for Fernández in 2019 considered that “It is only with the resignation of Ginés González García and the appointment of Carla Vizzotti that credibility can be restored. and the transparency of the COVID vaccination plan “.

More warning data for the government: a 39.4% of Frente de Todos voters assess negatively the vaccination plan “apart from these irregularities.”

So yes, comes the chapter on the electoral impact on the public in power. “You. I would rate the modification of this vote at Frente de Todos for these irregularities in the delivery of vaccines? ” Synopsis to voters K. And he divided the results into three large groups.

1) The “hard core”, with 54.1% of responses, he replied: “I will vote again for the Frente de Todos.”

2) The “sweet vote”, with 19.5% who opted for “yes, I would rate the change in my vote for this episode”, plus 4.7% of “don’t know / don’t answer”.

3) And the “disillusioned”, before the scandal, who added 21.8% and they said, “I had already decided to change my vote before this episode.”

Lucas Romero, political scientist and director of the consulting firm, analyzed the figures as follows:

– “The VIP vaccination episode is dangerous for the government because it operates in the emotional level, the plane that has the most impact on electoral behavior ”.

– “The study shows a absolutely transversal impact: the words most cited by all those consulted (“indignation”, “anger” and “disgust”) were the same words also the most cited among voters of the Frente de Todos, leaving evidence that anger has transcended the rift“.

– “From the point of view of public opinion, the episode has two dimensions of analysis: the done in itself, what is known (the list of the 70 vaccinated outside the protocol) and the done in the minds of citizens (How many people believe they are in fact the vaccinated VIPs). And the study shows that the majority think there are more (11.1%) or many more (70%) ”.

– “On the other hand, public opinion considers that resignation is not enough by Gines González to regain the confidence and credibility of the vaccination plan, which suggests that the government should redouble its efforts to make the process of granting this asset which will remain rare: transparent vaccines. “

– “Electoral matter, when asked if this episode could change their vote, nearly 20% of Frente de Todos voters indicated that they could assess the change in their vote for this episode. Forman is part of the flexible voter segment of the ruling party. They are the ones who, before this episode, if asked if today was the election who would they vote for, they said they would vote for the ruling party but they had not yet defined it. absolute way. There he appears to be able to make a bigger dent in the damage from the “VIP vaccination”.

Romero specifies, anyway, that it is about preliminary figures, with at least five months before the national STEP. An eternity for Argentine reality.

This is what other pollsters who have analyzed the question warn: they have no doubt about the impact on the image of the government today, but they do not see so clearly that it can directly affect the urns. Clarín brought forward this Sunday a work which, although it showed a decrease in the intention of votes of the Frente de Todos, this fall predated the scandal.