how many are the “No crack” and how could they vote this year

A repeating electoral mantra Horacio Rodríguez Larreta – and this infuriates his anti-K allies – is that about 50% of voters are for out of the crack and it will be the decisive group for the presidential election in 2023. This would explain its calculated record. And the head of government of Buenos Aires seems to have a reason, or at least his hypothesis coincides with the figures of a new national survey that he puts forward. Bugle this Thursday. It is a study of Pérez Aramburú and Asociados, one of the consulting firms that officially worked for the Cambiemos government and analyzed the scenarios for the legislative elections of 2021.

The survey was carried out from February 23 to 25, with 1409 cases. The results were presented with a margin of error of +/- 2.7%. In the 28-page report, the weight of the “No crack”. Locates them about 60%.

When discrimination is made on the basis of sex, age, socio-economic level and place of residence, it is concluded that the “No crack” son more in women (66%, compared to 54% of men), youth (63% among 18 to 29 year olds, compared to 59% among 30 to 49 year olds and 60% among over 50s), higher class (63%, compared to 62% of the average and 55% of the weak) and those who they live inside (63%, against 57% of GBA and 56% of porteños).

Then, when asking respondents to rate national management, count their economic expectations, or rate images of key politicians, it becomes clear that the “No crack” have a rather oppositional profile. According to this survey, their opinions are closer to those of those who define themselves as “macristas” than to those who identify themselves as “Kirchnerists”.

An example: Asked about the current economic situation, only 23% of Kirchnerists classify it as negative, against 80% of Macristas and 67% of “No crack” who choose the same answer.

Another sample: 88% of K respondents approve of the management of Alberto Fernandez, against only 11% of macristas and 25% of “No crack” who do so too.

The last: only 18% of Kirchnerists think that management decisions have been made Cristina Kirchner, against 78% of macristas and 51% of “No crack” who believe something similar.

Another interesting fact about this group moving away from polarization is its rejection -with nuances- with two emblematic figures of this fight: the vice-president and Mauricio macri.

– Among the “No crack”, Cristina combined 22% positive, 10% regular and 62% negative (plus 5% of ns / nc).

– While Macri, within the same group, add 25% positive, 24% regular and 48% negative (end 3% ns / nc).

Voting intention for legislative elections

Towards the end of the report, Perez Aramburú enters the electoral chapter. And here again the “No crack” with a more oppositional profile than an official profile.

“In October there will be elections to elect national deputies and senators. Although still missing, today would you be closer to voting for national government candidates or opposition candidates? “asked the consultant.

– LThe Kirchnerists and the Macristas exposed a similar level of loyalty: the first 84% would vote for government candidates and the second, 81%, for opposition candidates.

– While the “No crack “ they were divided like this: 25% would vote for the government candidates, 49% for the opponents and 26% still do not know or did not answer.

Then the signature ask for the “useful vote”: “Algunas personas dicen que en estas elecciones legislativas van a votar al candidato que más les guste sin importar si tiene muchas o pocas chances of ganar y otros dicen que van a votar al candidato que más tienen de ganarle al kirchnerismo. to do?”.

– Between the “No crack”, 44% anticipates a anti k helpful vote and 42%, a freer decision (14% ns / nc).

This oppositional preponderance is manifested again among the “No crack” in the last table of the study, when the electoral floors and ceilings of the two main political spaces.

– Respect to In front of all, 13% of “No crack” “will definitely vote”, 20% “could vote”, 47% “definitely won’t vote for this” the 20% “ns / nc”.

– About Together for change, 12% of “No crack” “I’m sure they will vote for”, 28% “could vote for”, 37% “certainly won’t vote for it” the 23% “ns / nc”.