How many people must be vaccinated against COVID-19 to obtain collective immunity in Argentina

The COVID-19 vaccination was launched at the end of December last year in Argentina with the main objective of reducing complications and deaths. Already 52% of the population has received at least one dose of vaccines. 13.24% of the population agreed to complete the vaccination schedule. But the possibility of reaching the call “Collective immunity” or “collective immunity” it’s still far away. Country infectology experts consulted by Infobae they believe that at least 80% of the population should be vaccinated with both doses to achieve herd immunity through immunization.

“Collective immunity” or “collective immunity” is the indirect protection against an infectious disease which is obtained when a population becomes immune, either following vaccination or after presenting the infection. Thanks to COVID-19 vaccines, which were developed in less than a year and have been shown to be effective and safe, the main goal is to reduce the number of severe cases and deaths, and then achieve immunity. collective against weaker circulation.

“We will achieve herd immunity when enough doses of vaccine reach countries, but it’s hard to predict how many need to be vaccinated in each country to reach that point, 70%? 80%? 90%? We will know when there are virtually no new infections and that remains the case, ”said Dr Carissa F. Etienne, director of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) on April 14.

In Argentina, until yesterday 29,880,247 doses of vaccines had been applied. In this total, there are 6,022,610 people with both doses applied. This means that less than 15% of the population has the full diet. Right now, with the emergence and advance of coronavirus variants, the percentage of the population that would need to be immunized to gain herd immunity may be higher than estimated last year.

“It was estimated that 66% of the population needed to be vaccinated to obtain herd immunity. But more people vaccinated will likely be needed as variants of the coronavirus circulate which have a higher transmissibility than the original coronavirus that gave rise to the pandemic, ”he said Infobae Dr Angela Gentile, specialist in epidemiology, infectology and vaccines from the Argentinian Pediatric Society and member of the National Commission for Vaccine Safety.

Meanwhile, the vice president of the Latin American Society of Pediatric Infectology, Dr Roberto Debbag, commented Infobae: “There are no specific mathematical models, but with the pre-Delta variants, we were talking about community immunity of around 70%. But now with Delta, it is estimated that collective immunity by vaccination would be achieved when 80% of the Argentine population already had both doses ”.

Dr Debbag noted that the percentage of the population vaccinated for herd immunity has also increased in developed countries. “Today, the pandemic in countries where the full vaccination rate exceeds 60% already have a new pandemic wave. This is the so-called pandemic of the unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated “, he claimed.

Although they have a large portion of the population vaccinated with two doses, the United States, Israel and the United Kingdom have seen peaks in COVID-19 cases. It has “become a disease of the unvaccinated, who are predominantly young,” said Joshua Goldstein, a demographer at the University of California at Berkeley.

According to Debbag, the main obstacle to obtaining herd immunity in Argentina in the near future is “access to vaccines”. Added: “The problem does not lie in the logistics of delivering and administering vaccines in Argentina. The problem is not to quickly access the number needed to administer them ”.

“It is necessary to have more people vaccinated with the two doses to obtain collective immunity in Argentina. In Uruguay, the device has already been completed in more than 60% of the population, and there is already a significant drop in deaths compared to last June ”, underline Infobae the infectologist Liliana Vázquez, is a member of the Argentine Society of Infectology and a doctor of the Clínica Maternidad Suizo Argentina and the Sanatorio Finochietto.

According to Dr Vázquez, the application of vaccines in adolescents – which was announced by the nation’s health ministry last Friday – will bring herd immunity closer to the country. “The aim of vaccination in pediatric patients is to protect the most vulnerable, and the second is to add a protected population to reduce the circulation of the virus, ”Vázquez said.

In other countries, such as the United States, there are concerns about the difficulty of obtaining collective immunity for other reasons. One of the reasons that could interfere with obtaining herd immunity is that part of the population of the United States is reluctant to get vaccinated. Surveys show that 30 percent of the population is still hesitant to get vaccinated. “In theory, it’s possible to have around 90 percent immunization coverage, but I would say it’s really not very likely.”he commented to the newspaper The New York Times Marc Lipsitch, public health researcher at the TH Chan School of Public Health at Harvard University.

Another problem is the large territory of the northern country. Even if nationally the vaccine coverage for COVID-19 reached 95%, there could be municipalities with a coverage of 70%. These differences could encourage further circulation of the coronavirus in these cities, which in turn could influence the epidemic as they are connected to other cities.

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