How the division of the Bolivian opposition has become the main electoral arm of Evo Morales

Yes Evo Morales Measured with only one opposition candidate in Bolivia's presidential elections on Oct. 20, he could suffer a defeat or fail to reach two-thirds of the seats in the legislature. That's what some polls show that show an unfavorable trend to the head of state when the scenario of a possible second round is raised, especially with opponents. Carlos Mesa you Oscar Ortiz.

However, neither Mesa nor Ortiz nor five others The presidential candidates competing with Morales intend to reduce their candidacy before the presidential elections of October 20th. The only politician in the opposition bloc to have insistently proposed new primaries in which presidential candidates are elected to elect a single opponent to the elections of the Bolivian leader is Virginio LemaMNR, which participates in various surveys with support of less than 2%.

In this context, the three-time presidential candidate and Leader of the Opposition, National Unity, has reappeared on the political scene, Samuel Doria Medinafor insist on the need for the opposition to unite and consider that there is already a record of four electoral victories of opponents to Morales. He spoke of the triumph of the referendum "No" on the resttulation of the current president, in addition to those held in two judicial elections and a referendum on the autonomies. "We beat the ruling party four times without dispersion," he said during a contact with Infobae.

Instead, he cited the example of mediocre results obtained during the opposition division in the 2014 presidential elections: "By not focusing the opposition vote, the party in power got control of two-thirds of Congress. When they joined forces, the number of single-member opposition members doubled"he said.

Although Doria Medina decided to withdraw the party's competition from this year's competition, which ranked second in the 2014 presidential elections, she returned to the media this week with the idea to insist with the unit and warned that there are candidates who are at risk to lose the name of their party organizations. "They are the ones who will get less than 3 percent"he said.

In the polls, only two of the eight rival pairs of Evo Morales appear with a percentage of support above this minimum. The former president is one of the candidates with a very low vote Jaime Paz Zamora, the former vice president Víctor Hugo Cárdenas and the governor of La Paz, Felix Patzi.

Based on the polls, the UN opposition leader believes that in this year's elections it is possible that the polarization occurs Evo Morales with one of the two main opposition candidates in the race. "I did not include nor include anyone from this polarization"He said, referring specifically to Carlos Mesa and Oscar Ortiz."I've read the opinion studies and there are only two candidates (Morales and Mesa) with two-digit numbers and several one-digit numbers"he added.

He insisted that A new president of Bolivia will be appointed on October 20 if the opposition unit is not reunited, but if division and dispersal are imposed, the beneficiary will be Evo Morales.

Ortiz and Mesa, in the fight

A striking cross between the two opposition candidates with more chances in the polls shows that, in addition to fighting against Evo Morales, both seek to position themselves in the campaign as the leader of the president's rivals. So much Oscar Ortiz as some followers of its political strength, Bolivia says that they have not lost sight of the direct criticism addressed to the former president Carlos Mesa.

There was allegations of alleged expenses the opposition candidate with the best location in the polls when he was spokesman for the Bolivian maritime application to The Hague, invited by Evo Morales.

But the biggest question of Ortiz and the leader of his party, the governor of Santa Cruz, Rubén Costas, is a Mesa's refusal to consolidate an opposition alliance and his supposed affinity with the government. "My party has proposed a dialogue, as in Chilein which the main parties and some leaders meet to ensure electoral victory, the defense of results and future governance. Unfortunately, several former presidents felt that it was time to return to politics. In the case of Mesa, insisted to return without the parties and on citizen platforms, which made this concertación impossible ".

For Ortiz, the other seven candidates are not all democratic opposition, since some propose a more radical model than that of Evo Morales and others must show that there are several nominations. Your party's goal is to agglutinate the highest percentage of the opposition vote that is about change, not continuity. to secure the second round in October against Evo Morales.

Crossfire does not end

In the context of this cross between opponents, in recent hours, the former minister Saul Lara, similar to Carlos Mesa, said that other opposition candidates, including Oscar Ortiz, they are functional for MAS and continuity.

There were also critics of the Mesa of opposition party candidates, such as the former president Jaime Paz Zamora, who is appointed by the PDC, and the former vice president Víctor Hugo Cárdenas, from UCS.

Before the eight rival candidacies of Evo Morales were known, a platform of six leaders worked in Bolivia, first demanding that the president respect the result of the referendum unlike his new repostulation for another reelection. The group of six opponents were former Presidents Carlos Mesa and Jorge Quiroga, as well as former Vice President Víctor Hugo Cárdenas and Mayor of La Paz, Luis Revilla, Governor of Santa Cruz, Rubén Costas, and from the former minister. presidential candidate Samuel Doria Medina.

Of the six, there are now two candidates. The first of this group who refused to run was Jorge Quiroga, which asked everyone to commit to consolidate until July of this year a single candidacy of the opposition.

Carlos Mesa He said a few days ago that he will insist on working at the opposition unit. Another rival of Evo Morales who criticized the former president is the former governor of Beni, Ernesto Suárez, who said that one could not go from an "authoritative caudillo to an enlightened ruler", referring to Evo Morales and Carlos Mesa.

Who, despite all this unfavorable climate for unity, insists on getting a single and strengthened opposition bloc, is the presidential candidate of the MNR, Virginio Lema. "I do not think the unit is based on polls, it's time to sit down and see mechanisms like new primaries, in which citizens elect by vote the only candidate in the polls. Opposition, the losers must support it unconditionally, "he said.

Another of the opposition candidates who prefers to talk about a "possible unit" instead of "desirable unity" of Eval Morales' rivals is the former president. Víctor Hugo Cárdenas. Like him, others are reluctant to leave the countryside.