How the situation in Venezuela continues: the three possible scenarios proposed by the Inter-American Dialogue

"The report presents the hope we all felt at the beginning of the year, when Juan Guaidó unified the opposition against Michael Maduro and inspired the international community, started "Michael Camilleri", but also the perplexity and uncertainty as to the evolution of the facts"

The report referred to by the expert on international law is entitled "Venezuela, transition interrupted?" and is the result of the Working Group on Venezuela of the Inter-American Dialogue (IAD). The text, presented by the Center for Latin America and the Caribbean Kimbergly Green (LACC), Florida International University (CRF)He began by wondering how the situation gets more complicated every day.

"In a few words, the the democratic transition we urgently need is possible but not inevitable", summarizes Camilleri, director of the" Rule of Law "program, Peter D. Bell of the DIA and author of the text presented during the dialogue with Frank Mora (Director FIAC LACC), Michael Shifter (president of the DIA), Tamara Taraciuk Broner (Human Rights Watch researcher, HRW) and Raúl Stolk (publisher of Chronicles of Caracas). The report, in summary, raised three possible scenarios, in addition to three less likely.

"Today, Venezuelans suffer not only the consequences of authoritarian consolidation, but also the impact of a humanitarian crisis and economic created by the regime. The The Venezuelan economy contracted by half between 2013 and 2018. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that inflation will reach 1,370,000 percent in 2019 and that gross domestic product (GDP) will be reduced by 18 percent, "the report says. A study has shown thatIn 2018, only one in 10 Venezuelans could pay for their daily mealswhile another study found that 80% of households were food insecure. "

Although Guaidó and his team bet that the military would move away from Maduro by deciding to prevent the entry of humanitarian aid in February, "the opposite has been proven". Only to end of March, the Red Cross managed to get into food and medicine which are urgently needed. Meanwhile, the National Assembly, controlled by the opposition since 2015 and its leader, GuaidóPresident recognized by a coalition of more than 50 countries, continues to look for ways to achieve a peaceful transition.

"Currently, however, it seems far from inevitable," the report presents the three scenarios that, given the "key factors and central actors" of the country's politics:

1) A "clean" democratic transition: the first possibility is that promoted by Guaidó and his allies of the opposition. "The armed forces respond to the overwhelming pressure of economic, diplomatic and popular forces and refuse to repress the demonstration and support the Maduro regimeand finally recognize Guaidó as interim president and commander-in-chief, "according to the text.

About a thousand Venezuelan soldiers have rejected Maduro's authority, but the generals continue to support him. "Even if the upper brbad is gone, it is likely that require certain guarantees – personal and institutional – as a condition to support Guaidó As a leader of the transition, "he anticipated, it would be" complex negotiations "and it is not possible to eliminate unwanted situations.

"In this scenario, a Increased violence by armed groups who remain loyal to Maduro and the ELN guerrillas already present in Venezuela, "warned the text, which could be" exacerbated by almost all six million weapons in the hands of civilians"

2) An extended "dead point": the second possibility is the continuation of the current scenario, "a link between two presidents", which would be "naturally unstable". The IAD badyzed that Guaidó hoped that the increasing pressure of sanctions would bear fruit; in the same way that Maduro hopes to perpetuate himself with his military and stifle the opposition.

"Is it possible that time is playing in Maduro's favor?" Asked Moraand Stolk warned: "Experience tells us that Maduro knows how to scramble things." He referred to a central point of the second scenario: the possibility that the the international unity and internal unity of the opposition are broken before the worsening of the humanitarian crisis.

This could lead to "strategic divisions between those who support the transition," says the report. "Again, here's the potential of a increased violence and chaos It's true ".

3) "Change of a dictator for another": The third possibility explores one of the factors intrinsic to the Venezuelan crisis, the fractures in the armed forces. In this case, a military sector would suppress Maduro "but would retain power instead of transferring it to Guaidó in accordance with the constitutional order of succession, perhaps with vague promises of new elections ".

This scenario, which the experts considered capable of creating some stability, would also bring "eventually increased repression and uncertain democratic prognosis"It would also divide the united international community today behind the scenes and that could"endanger stabilization support and the economic recovery of Venezuela. "

The three unlikely scenarios presented by "Venezuela, transition interrupted?" are there foreign military intervention (which would have legitimacy only in a few cases, as indicated in Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter), a internal conflict between the army (a rebellion, or a break between the generals and Maduro) or a Coup of state of opposition.

Is the May 1st mobilization, to which Guaidó summons, to mark a change to the first stage? Camilleri said that "whenever we expect something and nothing happens, we are frustrated, this time, there is a difference: you are asked to go to the center [de Caracas], in Miraflores"That," he commented, "would not allow the tie to continue."

"You can create a confrontation," he warned. "There may be bullets, Maduro retains the ability to exert deadly force, it's a brutal reality", he added. "But we have seen a lot of courage in Venezuela and we will see more," he said, with regard to internal forces, "and a lot of commitment", as far as international forces are concerned.

Shifter says "skeptical about a turning point". For the President of the Dialogue, "the big question is to know if the military will suppress"And while avoiding predictions, he agreed with other experts that the next mobilization was different from those that have been conducted so far, called by Guaidó and the rest of the opposition.

As all roads seem to lead to the maintenance or deepening of the humanitarian crisisSpeakers and the audience introduced the issue. "It's a devastating situation that can not wait until the stalemate is overTaraciuk said.

The HRW researcher was on the Colombian border with doctors from Johns Hopkins University and revealed a devastating picture: "epidemics of preventable diseases, cases of diphtheria and malaria, lack of treatment for HIV and widespread malnutrition". In the immediate future, "it is necessary to launch a vast campaign" to help the Venezuelan population.

"It is not necessary to ask Maduro for permission: it is a question of putting a Strong political pressure from the highest levels of the UN"Taraciuk spoke of a technical term," complex humanitarian emergency, "which can reinforce" immediate help. "While he was planning to send the growing diaspora, which provides drugs and food, the task of the the Red Cross They are very important, they are not enough. "I need to lead the UN."

Stolk observed that although February's humanitarian aid failed to enter the country, it was of great importance: "It was an act of the government of Guaidó, it was hoped to open the humanitarian channel – and finally the Red Cross did it –but it turned out that this government, which has no control over the territory, can do things. Guaidó and his team are working today as part of other government events, such as organizing what is needed for the elections"

Shifter added that even though Maduro "controls the territory, the bureaucracy and the armed forces", there are clear indicators of its decline after the start of a new presidential period in January after elections that were not recognized as legitimate. "There were elections tomorrow, Guaidó takes 80% and Maduro 20%"he said. The support for everyone, at the moment, "is higher than 60% for Guaidó and less than 14% for Maduro".

As recommendations, the report highlighted four points, the first of which was: "keep the unit"because the greatest source of strength that exists today "those who work for the restoration of democracy in Venezuela is the current unity between actors inside and outside the country".

The other suggested strategies were "avoid overcoming" (for example, do not use the use of military force), "be tenacious but not dogmatic"(Given the reality of the power structure in Venezuela, which states" that the transition will be negotiated ") and"keep the participation"(message to the international community, especially about the humanitarian crisis).