How to play James Bond after Sean Connery, the difficult task of the next German chancellor

The daily Bild described what is happening in Germany as “The most exciting chancellery thriller of all time.” The outcome of the legislative elections of September 26 is absolutely uncertain. The bar set by the leader who has governed since 2005 is so high that the Germans are struggling to find the new chancellor among the three leaders who present themselves to replace her. Polls show voters They go from one end to the other without being completely convinced by anyone. After 16 years, Angela Dorothée Merkel, has become an element almost as characteristic of the German landscape as the little man with the traffic lights in Berlin or the tourist route of the Black Forest. Like a rugged outcrop of the snow-capped verticalities of the Hochfrottspitze, this “Small tractor” of center-right Christian democracy it has stood like a rock solid during four legislatures of severe economic and political crises, not only at the country level but across the continent.

Annalena Baerbock, from the Green party he appeared at the start of the campaign as the favorite. A change of perspective for the government at a crucial time for the economy and politics to support environmental protection. Then it was Armin Lachet, the leader of the same party as Merkel, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who topped the polls but didn’t make a good impression in the first two televised debates. Now it’s SPD Finance Minister and Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, which have better chances. Either way, there is an open ending.

A poll by the ARD television network, carried out after last Sunday’s 90-minute debate, showed that 41% of respondents think Scholz is the most convincing candidate, against 27% approval for Laschet and 25% for Baerbock. Scholz showed solidity when confronted face-to-face with questions from one of his rivals about his ministry’s alleged role in the obstructing money laundering investigations. Authorities are assessing whether the Financial Intelligence Unit (CRF), an agency under the control of the Ministry of Finance, has not acted on warnings from banks about possible money laundering.

The prestigious British magazine The Economist, which conducts in-depth surveys taking into account variables other than traditional surveys, estimates that anyway Scholz has a “3 in 4” chance of reaching the Chancellery, Laschet “1 in 4” and Baerbock “1 in 20”. And it is possible that at least two of them will end up forming a coalition government with the most voted as chancellor. Merkel claims to withdraw completely from the political scene, but it is likely that she will end up being the one who will bless, like a living pope, his successor.

The Chancellor remains Germany’s most popular politician, with 66% approval. This position also extends to much of the rest of Europe. Everyone will miss it. He is retiring after having marked the destiny of Europe like no other head of government in 16 years. Merkel negotiated with four French presidents, five British prime ministers, four US presidents and eight Italian prime ministers. He has led Europe’s largest economy and Eurozone crises, Brexit, waves of refugees and the Covid pandemic. Emmanuel Macron appears as his natural successor at European levelBut she does not enjoy the consensus that Merkel had obtained despite the great ideological differences with her Social Democratic colleagues.

The successor will have to deal first and foremost with the pandemic, which is currently in its fourth wave in Germany, with an increasing number of infected and worrying dynamics as the autumn and winter months approach, which can make the situation worse. You will also have to deal with the consequences of the dramatic July floods in the west of the country. Not only did they leave great damage, but they highlighted the political urgency of tackling climate change. He also hits the Germans the chaotic departure of Western troops from Afghanistan. Germany has been militarily involved in this country for 20 years, with a cost for taxpayers of around 12,500 million euros. The criticisms of the management of the withdrawal have been accompanied by the debate on the reception of Afghan migrants and the fear that a migration crisis like the one in 2015. And on the continental level, there are long-lasting crises, like the one in 2015. of strained relations with Russia or China, the problematic links with Turkey or the fractures within the European Union itself, in particular with countries such as Poland and Hungary.

If the Germans ended up choosing Olaf Scholz as Markel’s successor, they would have as their leader a very experienced economist. Until the Covid pandemic, he had a reputation for being prudent in tax matters, but was instrumental in driving the EU’s 750 billion euro stimulus package (886 billion dollars) and a national recovery plan worth 130 billion euros. However, your generosity has limits. Leans less to the left than many in his party, and wants Germany to return to the “debt brake” in 2023, which imposes strict limits on federal and state government spending. In addition, in recent years, he has acquired a charisma that he did not have. At the beginning of the 2000’s They called him “Scholz-o-mat” for its robotic behavior. And he will have to untie himself even more to occupy the office of the “little tractor” Merkel. As a humorous commentator on The Guardian newspaper put it: Being the next German Chancellor is like playing James Bond after Sean Connery.

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