How will Brexit affect the situation of the Falkland Islands and the overseas territories of the United Kingdom

How can the British exit from the European Union (EU) affect the situation of the overseas territories of the United Kingdom, in particular the Falkland Islands, in view of the historical claim of the United Kingdom? ;Argentina? What changes can be foreseen in the negotiations between London and Buenos Aires for the sovereignty of the archipelago? How would this "Brexit" change security cooperation at the European and global levels?

These are some of the questions that have emerged in recent years on the situation of the Malvinas Archipelago since the UK approved by referendum in 2016 the block's release, and that were treated on Thursday a group of Argentine specialists from the University of National Defense, in Buenos Aires.

If what happened after this referendum, the negotiations between London and Brussels, the internal divisions in the UK, the rise of an almost populist nationalism in the face of a Europeanism hitit was traveled amid chaos and uncertainty and the deadline for Brexit – March 29 – had to be extended until October 31, as well as for the future of the islands Malvinas, occupied by Great Britain since 1833 and claimed by Argentina since then, raises great doubts.

The Falkland Islands, for which Great Britain and Argentina waged a short but brutal war in 1982, with enormous political and diplomatic effects, is one of the 14 overseas territories of the United Kingdom, which they are not part of this union between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but rather constitute a part of the British crown. In this way, they never formally entered the EU, although they have benefited from some of the benefits of this company, particularly in economic terms.

"Overseas territories are the remnants of the empire, and The British Empire was one of the most ambitious companies, and that brought more pride to the British, but especially to the British.. That will tell us something about the British and especially British attitude after Brexit, "he said. Andrea Oelsner, Doctor of International Relations from the London School of Economics and Professor at the University of San Andrés.

"The maintenance of all the territories of Overseas it's expensive, in political and economic terms "added Oelsner, stressing that it was the responsibility to carry out the reconstruction work after the natural disasters in some Caribbean dependencies, particularly in Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands, as well as the military and defense needs in Malvinas and Gibraltar or having to deal with the scandals caused by tax havens in places like the Cayman Islands.

"Brexit makes maintenance more expensive, small islands in the Caribbean depend to a large extent on EU aid programs After Brexit, help will no longer be possible"said specialist Jean Monnet Fellow of the European University Institute (IUE-Florence) and former professor-researcher at the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Aberdeen, Scotland.

"The Malvinas are much less dependent on this aid, but the main problem of Brexit is trade. 80% of its exports go to Spain and just under half of the imports are from Europe "Oelsner said, recalling that, thanks to the current membership of the United Kingdom in the European Union, the archipelago It benefits from agreements to trade with the block without customs duties. "This could mean that a negotiation with Argentina could be easier, as Britain would be more inclined to negotiate ", he added.

But on the other hand, Oelsner considered that the Brexit triumph marked a move to the right of British society, a phenomenon that also has a strong English component, because in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales the vote in the referendum was mainly against Brexit.

"Brexit is a victory of the nationalist right, but this nationalism is not British, it is English and it was born in the epoch of the Empire. Brexit weakens the United Kingdom, but strengthens English nationalism. In this context, trading can be more difficult. I do not see a scenario too positive in the short term for Argentina "he concluded.

"In the Malvinas, they are very worried about Brexit and what could happen", studied Federico Martín Gómez, graduate in Political Science and International Relations and Secretary of the Department of Falkland Islands, Antarctica and South Atlantic Islands, at the Institute of International Relations of the National University of La Plata (IRI-UNLP). "For at least four years There is a process of political empowerment, encouraged by London, to prepare the island society for the challenge of Brexit. "

"The Falkland Islands do not wait for the arrival of Brexit, they are already implementing public policies to face the potential consequences"he remarked. In this respect, since 21 September 2018, a video in which the Malvinas Islands Government raises precisely some of these challenges and their proposals for overcoming them.

In this sense, Juan Alberto Rial, Master in International Relations and Coordinator of the Department of International Security and Defense of the IRI-UNLP, He also pointed out that a "messy Brexit", to the extent that we know that the UK's exit from the EU is done without agreement, would be beneficial for the position of the EU. # 39; Argentina.

The preliminary agreement between London and Brussels to regulate the resulting new relationship between the UK and the EU was rejected three times in the British Parliament, and this inability to order the exit is behind a series of postponements to the final Brexit date that even fueled the idea of ​​a second referendum.

"The Brexit disorder would be more functional for Argentina's interests, as the economic spinoffs in the United Kingdom are expected to result in a contraction of 10% of its GDP, and the costs of maintaining a base of Mount Pleasant magnitude would be more difficult to manage. ", he explained, also remembering that the presence of The "extra-hemispheric power" of the Malvinas is a challenge for the entire region.