"If the inflation this year is less than 30% we uncork the champagne"

07/15/2018 –

The economist Rodolfo Santangelo anticipated that "we will have at least four quarters of recession" at the same time as he indicated regarding the inflation this year that "if it is less than 30% champagne uncork."

"Four-quarters have followed a decline in economic activity.The brake began to be noticed on the inside by drought, and later by falling real wages and rising interest rates.In the second quarter of the year, activity was negative after five positive quarters, "explains

Santángelo said: "We are at the entrance to the tunnel, how long we do not know." next year, we can have a light at the end of this tunnel if the field recovers. "

" The government's biggest mistake was to underestimate the macroeconomic issue. l thought that investment and growth would take care of everything, "adds the director of M & S Consultores.

He also criticizes the level of current interest rates, because "the increase in rates serves for a short time.

Of course, when there is a fire, it must be extinguished, but rates of this magnitude are only lasting for weeks, not even months, otherwise the payment chain will collapse. "

Regarding the IMF's recommendation To halt the reduction of holdbacks on soybean exports to improve the tax situation of the country, which happened this Friday in the "staff report" of the technicians of the agency, the economist estimated that "this year we can stop the reduction , drought, falling production and lower prices in recent weeks. "

Finally, he calculated that inflation in July and August will be about 3.5%, could exceed 30% per year and that any registration by d Below this figure would be a surprise. "If it's less than 30%, we're getting champagne," he said.