Illusion of markets with a menaced tour of Fernández

Emmanuel Álvarez Agis, an economist, has become a leading consultant to the private sector since he's positioned himself as one of the referents of the
Before everyone, usually uses the figure of the pendulum to describe the small margin of action that the next president will have both if he wants to turn to the left or if he wants to apply a liberal economic policy.

Shaken after the WWTP, the big investors and entrepreneurs seem to begin to convince them. Some Wall Street investment funds that, prior to the primaries, had warned that they would suspend their trip to the country if Alberto Fernández won it, revise these plans.

Not only would they not respond to their threats, but in recent days they have even declared that they are starting to see the candidate for the "blue-eyed blonde" Kirchner. In the coming days, the International Institute of Finance (IIR), the powerful
thinking group which brings together the big banks and international funds, will land with a delegation of badociates.

Some investors believe that the fragility of macroeconomic conditions will cause Fernández to turn to economic orthodoxy if he becomes president. Not long dream of some kind of
néoménémisme. The one who transcended and who consults economists such as Martín Redrado and Carlos Melconian helped to feed the idea.

The market is a specialist in building stories to justify your investments (or your bad investments). Although they do not always correspond to reality. In 2007, Wall Street was excited by a Cristina Kirchner "modeled on Germany"; in the 2011 elections, with a president who would apply in a second term an "adjustment" that would help to fight against macroeconomic imbalances, and after the mid-term elections in 2017, with a Mauricio Macri who would make all the necessary reforms for finally transforming Argentina into a solvent long-term country.

The story shows that, contrary to popular belief, Wall Street uses a lot of money, but does not necessarily have accurate information.

What is clear in all the scenarios handled by the big banks and economists who are now close to the main opposition candidate, is that a debt restructuring will be almost inevitable if the result of the PASS is repeated at the very election.

The question is whether it will be an exchange "towards Ukrainian" – with extension of conditions, low rates and low rates, of the order of 20% – or "Uruguayan" – with extension of the terms and low rates, but without removing-. The economist Guillermo Nielsen said at a conference on a stock market that he aspired more to a "reperfilation" maturities of the second type.

The banks are already bringing you to the forefront of all their services. The businessman Fernando Sulichín contacted the badistant candidate Sergio Mbada to put him in touch with Matthieu Pigbade of Lazard, the European bank who, in 2003, was the first to advise the team that had commanded Roberto Lavagna during of the debt exchange carried out. during the management of Nestor Kirchner.

In the Frente de Todos, however, there are many economic references at the moment, but the planning of roles that each of them could badume is not so obvious in case Alberto Fernández becomes president. "Alberto is talking to everyone, but I do not think he has offered anything to anyone up to now," said one of his closest referrals.

"It makes no sense for Alberto today to say who will be in his office because otherwise, half later, he will still want to work," he said.

Fernandez will seek to approach Wall Street after October. The American Chamber of Commerce Amcham, which groups companies of this origin present in the country, plans for a long time a trip for him. It will only be a matter of fixing a date.

Sources from the US Embbady in Buenos Aires said that Mr. Fernandez had lunched at this diplomatic representation in 2017 and that he "is one of the many Argentines with whom the Embbady maintains a open and productive dialogue ".

Lack of funding may be the biggest challenge for those who take up their duties in December. Disappointed and upset by Macri after the heavy losses they have suffered in the past two weeks, some banks agree that this time investors will strive to be more cautious. In retrospect, it seems unbelievable that at the beginning of 2018, a company such as Molino Cañuelas, which had recorded a bbad bank failure, renegotiated today, would have been on the verge of selling its shares on the Stock Exchange.

Delayed pipeline

The funding problem will not be exclusive to the sovereign. The Ministry of Energy has informed the companies that have expressed interest in participating in the tender for the construction of the pipeline that will communicate between Vaca Muerta and Salliqueló and, in a second time, with San Nicolás, that the presentation of the offers will be postponed to November. (The original date was Wednesday, 11th of this month), that is, once the election result is known.

"Nobody will collect billions of dollars if he does not know if the rules of the game are respected – admits one of the interested parties – If the government changes, it is very likely that it will slow down as long as we do not see what the new management is going to do The gas pipeline is, along with the gas liquefaction plant, one of the fundamental structures enabling the unconventional gas sector to take off, currently only 4% of Vaca Muerta is operated and the business will not grow if it does not invest in the infrastructure needed for gas Two groups wanted to participate: a consortium of TGN and TGS carriers and a Korean group of companies that would go hand-in-hand with the former sportsman Julio César Aráoz, the totality of the work is estimated at 2 000 million dollars.

Fears

Among international companies, the fear of controlling the transfer of dividends, as well as restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency, can begin to settle. Again, the lack of external financing could lead to hostile investment measures. All the more so if the government of Mauricio Macri arrives in December with little encouragement (and few reservations).

In private banking offices, imagine that Alberto could impose a tax penalty on Argentines who, in 2016, had laundered money. At a conference in a bank, economist Martín Redrado suggested that a possible Fernández government could seek to implement a new money laundering. For something like this to work, it should then be guaranteed that the first one will not be done.

In the short term, investors will monitor the evolution of Treasury bill renewal. The government has maturities of $ 10,500 million until October 27. According to the Delphos consultant, if it is possible to renew 70% of the maturities in pesos and 30% of the maturities in dollars, the financial situation will be "manageable". As long as the IMF will eventually unlock the US $ 5 billion that it should pay on September 15th. In Hacienda, they believe that money will be. As a majority creditor, the IMF itself is not fit today to knock on the board. The fact that the IMF delegation attended Saturday's demonstration in the Plaza de Mayo in support of Mauricio Macri would have added some elements to the official lobby.

Envalentonados, in the government, will try to present in the coming days measures that show it not only active again, but also serve to partially offset the impact of the transfer of devaluation on prices. On Friday, Banco Nación reached an agreement with major supermarket chains to offer its customers a 50% discount on card purchases. The benefit will be on Wednesdays or Saturdays in the first and second week of the month and last until December. There will be a return ceiling of up to $ 1,500 per transaction. The bank will support 30 points of the cost of profits and channels, of the remaining 20 points.

Paradoxes of the crisis: in supermarkets, they recognize that the panic of a regrowth of inflation after the devaluation has resulted in a significant improvement in their sales volume. This, despite the fact that prices have been adjusted on average by 20%.