IMF already uses 39.6% forecast for 2019 | Chronic

By Mariano Cúparo Ortíz

The government's attempts to limit inflation during the recession have met with three drawbacks: a 15% increase in the dollar over the last two months and a full rate of transportation, electricity and gas , wages would not work as well. a clear nominal anchor, in full election year. While the IMF is already using, for debt sustainability badysis, a hypothetical inflation of 39.6% of the GDP deflator of 2019, alerted by the pressures that prices will face in the coming months.

The report of the third IMF review stated: "The recent rise in inflation is the result of a combination of several factors, including rising utility rates, higher-than-expected wage increases and a restructuring of margins by sector and stores.".

The idea of ​​a payroll recovery faster than expected has caused surprises and ironies among badysts. But with the two other pillars par excellence (dollar and rate) virtually inactive because of the Fund's taxes (revaluation of the dollar and customs duties), a partial recovery of labor income, even lower than inflation, puts also CPI by means of career wage-rates.

The researcher from the University of El Salvador explained it: Hector Rubini: "The race between wages and prices is already underway, it is possible that you have wage increases that increase price increases even when the real wage has not been recovered." In the face of pressure, employers give pay raises and continue to focus on ".

Another noise appears in the weighting that the IMF gives to price dynamics, with the dollar and prices rising and driving up business costs, which in itself far exceeds the CPI and leads to reformulation. current. L & # 39; economist Mariano Kestelboim He said: "Of course, it is possible to suffer inflationary pressures on wages even with a real fall – it was one thing that wages fell by 50% and another 18%, as it did." The problem is that it is not the main factor of inflation, but the dollar, the rates and even the interest rate, which shrink the scales of companies and increase their fixed costs ".

A report from Ecolatina considered that "2019 is an election year for the executive, governors need to add votes among public service employees and the national executive needs a real improvement in its compensation". And he said: "One possible result is that they end up validating high wage increases and that companies are shifting the rising cost of labor onto prices, thus accelerating the race between wages and salaries, what we see in the first parity of 2019, whose floor has jumped from 23% to 30% ".