IMF: Argentina's inflation will be 57.3% and GDP down 3.1%

These data appear in the World Economic Outlook (WEO), published today in Washington as part of the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund.

In this regard, the Minister of FinanceHernán Lacunza as the head of the central bank, Guido Sandleris, they will hold meetings with the technical line of the multilateral organization as part of the agreement reached with the IMF, which has granted to Argentina a loan of about 57,000 million dollars .

It should be noted that these poor economic figures place us in one of the few countries with high inflation and facing a prolonged recession. They also indicate that the recommendations or the support of the Monetary Fund would not be as effective as expected. It is true that Argentina had no choice but to resort to a loan from the agency, but it is none the less true that the staff's recommendations do not do not give the expected results.

It is for this reason that opposition candidates, at once Alberto Fernández as Roberto Lavagna they emphasize the co-responsibility of the IMF in the economic failure of the government of Mauricio Macri.

Until a few years ago, Argentina had received few mentions in the framework of the WEO. The most striking reported manipulations in national statistics by the Kirchner government. On the other hand, in this report, references to Argentina are repeated, but not for good reason since it positions itself as one of the countries responsible for slowing global growth.

"The dramatic worsening of macroeconomic conditions between 2017 and 2019 in a few critically endangered economies (in particular, Argentina, Iran, Turkey and Venezuela) accounts for about half of the decline in global growth from 3.8% in 2017 to 3.0% in 2019 " Specify the report.

These same economies, along with Brazil, Mexico and Russia, all three of which are expected to grow by about 1% or less in 2019, they account for more than 70% of the growth recovery by 2020.

The Argentine economy is expected to fall again in 2020, but at a lower rate than this year. and in Venezuela, it is estimated that its production will continue to collapse.

Stressed Argentina

The report is located at Argentina is part of a category of "stressed" countries, a group that shares with other countries in difficult circumstances: Iran, Libya, Sudan, Turkey and the United States. Venezuela.

Nor does the regional context help Argentina. In Latin America, the IMF notes, activity slowed sharply at the beginning of the year in the major economies, mainly because of idiosyncratic factors. Growth is now expected in the order of 0.2% this year (1.2 percentage points less than in the Fund's projections of April 2019).

This "Considerable" downward revision for 2019 reflects weaker forecasts of growth in Brazil (where interruptions in the mining supply have affected activity) and in Mexico (where investment remains weak and private consumption slowed down, due to political uncertainty and weakening of confidence and higher borrowing costs). It should be noted that the Fund expects growth in the Brazilian economy of only 0.9% for the current year and 2% for the following year.

There is also a Deceleration of the economy of another major trading partner: China which, according to the IMF, would rise from 6.1% this year to 5.8% in 2020.

The report notes that "The Argentine economy is expected to contract further in 2019 due to lower confidence and tighter external financing conditions".

However, for the entire Latin American region, growth is expected to reach 1.8% in 2020 (0.6 point lower than in the April forecast).

Projected reinforcement reflects the expected recovery in Brazil (thanks to accommodative monetary policy) and Mexico (as uncertainty gradually decreases), with a less severe recession for 2020 compared to this year in Argentina and Venezuela.

With respect to the world, the Fund expects global growth in 2020 to improve modestly to 3.4%, a downward revision of 0.2% from April's forecast.