IMF forecasts 30.5% inflation and 9.9% unemployment for Argentina in 2019

As part of the beginning of the spring (boreal) bademblage of the MFIs, the organization presented the World Economic Report (WEO) where predicts inflation of 30.5% for this year in Argentina.

According to the report, the Argentine economy will fall by 1.2% this year and unemployment will rise by almost one point, to reach 9.9%. In addition, they estimated that the global economy would experience lower growth than 2018 but that it would pick up speed over the months, a situation that will continue into 2020.

Some consultants have predicted inflation reaching 40% this year, but the IMF has calculated that it will arrive in December at 30.5% per year. "In Argentina, growth projections have been revised upwards, and nominal and rise in inflation expectations generate more persistent inflationary pressures in 2019 than those projected in October 2018 ", they detailed in the report.

Raise the 2019 inflation forecast to 40%

It is about an IMF correction 10 points from their previous forecasts. The regional average, on the other hand, will be 5.6%. Meanwhile, for 2020, inflation in Argentina is calculated at 21.2%.

According to the agency, "the risks of deterioration for the economy are still significant and, if they materialized, could divert investor preferences to the detriment of peso badets and generate pressure on the currency." and the capital account ".

"It is essential that the stabilization plan continues to be implemented as part of the IMF-supported economic reform program to strengthen investor confidence and restore sustainable growth that improves the living conditions of the economy. all segments of society, "they added.

The leading organization Christine Lagarde He said that to maintain monetary objectives "it will be crucial to anchor inflationary expectations and restore the credibility of the Central Bank".

"In addition to these efforts to stabilize the economy in the short term, the resumption of the structural reform agenda will help to improve medium-term growth prospects," they said.

The Minister of Finance will attend the meeting, Nicolás Dujovneand the president of the central bank (BCRA), Guido Sandlerisafter IMF approval of a new disbursement under the Stand-By Arrangement.

Here is the full report:

DR / FeL