IMF forecasts: recession, rising inflation and …

The International Monetary Fund today released its report on the global economy, in which it estimates that it will remain high inflation, which it expects to 30.5% by the end of this year. This is the same figure that agency staff presented in his report when he authorized the third disbursement for $ 10.8 billion. For this end-to-end inflation figure (December), the average retail price this year will be 43.7%. In addition, he estimated that Argentina's gross domestic product (GDP) would fall by 1.2% this year. It is only in 2020 that the agency expects a GDP increase of 2.2% and a decline in inflation at the end of the year of 21.2% per year. The Fund also noted that the unemployment rate was 9.2% in 2018 but that it would increase to 9.9 this year, a figure that would remain in 2020.

Forecasts for this year put Argentina in sixth place in the world with the highest rate of inflation, just behind Venezuela (with no precise figures "10 000 000%"), in Sudan (56.2%), in Zumbawe (40%). 1%) and Iran (31.2%), according to the tables attached to the report.

"The Argentine economy will shrink in the first half of 2019, domestic demand will slow due to the tighter policy to reduce imbalances," he told the IMF by directly reporting the crisis to adjustments operated by the government of Mauricio Macri, agreed with the agency in exchange for funding.

For the Fund, the economy will resume its growth "in the second half, real disposable income and agricultural production recovering after the recent drought".

The Fund adds that the risks of a recession for the economy remain considerable and that investors could move away from the peso, which would put pressure on the exchange rate. Despite this, the report believes that "it is essential that the IMF-supported plan be continued" to regain investor confidence.

By downgrading forecasts of global economic growth, the agency includes "macroeconomic stress in Argentina and Turkey" as one of the causes of this poor prognosis. The IMF warned of a slowdown in the global economy in 2019 and a projected growth of 3.3% for all economies, while six months ago, the IMF was warning of a slowdown in the global economy. increase was estimated at 3.5%.

At the same time, GDP growth in Latin America is estimated at 1.4 percent, according to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report presented this morning in Washington. For the Fund, "Financial stabilization and recovery in Argentina, where growth is expected to strengthen by around 3.5% in the medium term (2024), contribute to the improvement of growth in this region" .

Every six months, the IMF prepares economic projections of the progress of the world economy and of the countries in particular, which are presented in the days leading up to the IMF and World Bank annual and spring meetings.