IMF recalculates inflation but releases $ 10,800 million

Recognition of the IMF's upward shift in inflationary projection, was announced yesterday by the organization's Western Hemisphere director, the Mexican Alejandro Werner, in an interview with the Bloomberg agency . The official claimed that Argentine inflation is "more stubborn than expected" and that the percentage should be recalculated. However, from the IMF, they informed the government and several private economists that this new calculation would not involve the seal of an agreement for the country; much less the need to negotiate a waiver with the agency. On the contrary: the climate that escapes from Washington is in agreement and optimistic about the evolution of other variables, including monetary and fiscal. According to Washington, the crisis will hit its lows in the first quarter of the year and, starting in April or May, recessionary tensions will start to subside and restrictive monetary policies will start to produce strains against the economy. inflation. And that, therefore, it will not be more difficult to release the US $ 10,800 million committed in the September 2019 agreement; with which the Macri government will have released the danger of default until very close to the October elections.

In the meantime, you already know in Argentina that inflation data for March will be as complicated as February's. In fact, in the corridors of the Department of Finance, there is already some surrender according to which the floor corresponds to a growth of 1.5% of the CPI, while the month has not yet begun . The increase in fuels and utility rates authorized by the executive itself is pronounced as well. With this panorama, and yielding to a 10% accumulated in the first quarter of the year, the government bet is that between April and June, there will be a positive reaction to rising prices and that the second half can start with better news. In the executive, the increase in naphtha that will begin to govern today will inevitably lead to an increase in the index measured by INDEC from 0.7 to 0.8%. Added to this is the 0.8% increase that will result in a 14% increase in electricity, 30% in gasoline and 9% in transportation; with which we are reaching the 1.5% inflation floor for March. We will have to wait because this month will have an impact on the education and maintenance sectors of the home, two elements that are seasonally complicated in March; plus the inflationary inertia inherited from February. The truth is that it will be impossible for the indicator not to be already calculated above 2%; which will reach the 10% accumulated in the first quarter. Too much This explains the signal sent yesterday by the Central Bank, which has announced an even larger adjustment than the IMF's monetary policy stance, at least until May (see page 3).