Impact: Constituent election reshapes the presidential race in Chile

SANTIAGO, Chile.- The hangover of elections is not over in Chile and 48 hours after the constitutional elections that gave victory to progressive forces, the political arc has turned its interest to a new flank: the presidential race to succeed Sebastián Piñera, who will complete his second term and will step down from power in March 2022.

The vote to define the new head of state is set for the 21 November, but with the reconfiguration of the political map that generated the election of voters, the different forces were activated and made decisions in view of this contest which has communism Daniel Jadue and center-right Joaquin lavin, according to analysts, as the best presented in a possible run-off on December 19.

Officially, and as the first season of the process, at midnight Wednesday to midnight, the July 18 deadline for parties to register their presidential primary candidatures expires. So far there is more than 14 politicians intend to run, but in a scenario as fragmented as Chile’s, the figure could be sharply increased or reduced, considering that this is an evolving process and only on Thursday can it be directed.

“There is quite uncertain. When we think of the presidential race, we see that it is very affected by the conventional process and we do not know what will happen. Candidates can emerge who go directly to the first round, that we do not know who they are and that they are outside the blocks. In addition, the national party councils have very few hours to decide their names, so everything will be very millimeter, ”said Jaime Baeza, an academic at the Institute of Public Affairs at the University of Chile.

“These elections should lead to the formation of two coalitions. One of the opposition, who would have three or four candidates; and another from the wing official with a single representative, who after the election results and the levels of dissatisfaction with the government could affect them in some way, ”said Rafael Pizarro, public and academic policy expert at UTEM.

From the ruling party itself, which suffered a historic fall in the election, two key definitions emerged: Providencia mayor Evelyn Matthei downgraded her Independent Democratic Union (UDI) party candidacy and left the free land in Lavín, mayor of the municipality of Las Condes, proclaimed by the National Council of the conservative conglomerate.

“Personally, I have always defended that Chile in the future does not need more government on the right or on the left, but different governments, governments agree, and it’s more in force than ever, ”said Lavín during the week, a man already experienced in the political arena, with high media visibility, and who intends to run for the third time. in the presidency of La Moneda. In 2000, he narrowly lost Ricardo Lagos and 2005 fell in the first round before Michelle bachelet who beat Piñera in waivers.

In his bloc, Lavín must first bypass the representatives of the parties of his alliance: Mario Desbordes de Renovación Nacional (RN) and the current government’s former finance minister, Ignacio Briones de Evópoli, both identified with a more liberal profile. and far from the most radical far right represented by José Antonio Kast, leader of the Republican Party who will arrive in the November ballot off the hook

Energized by its victory, the anti-neoliberal left has two strong names: the first is Jadue, too mayor of a municipality of Santiago, and that leads the intention to vote in the polls, with the deputy Pamela Jiles, controversial parliamentarian that the weekend suffered a clear defeat, after his partner Pablo Maltés was defeated in the election of governor of the metropolitan region.

Another relevant actor is Gabriel Boric, one of the leaders of the student revolt of 2011, who is now a Member of Parliament, and who became the articulator of the agreement that was generated in the midst of the social explosion and established the conditions for the constitutional process. That same week, Boric secured the necessary signatures to register and it is highly likely that his name will see a comeback in the polls.

In the center-left and in the old parties of the Concertación which governed Chile after the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet, the sum of the names is high and each party raised candidatures more to mark its subsistence and its influence of project than to have real possibilities of reaching La Moneda.

In this context, the Party for Democracy (PPD) has former Foreign Minister Heraldo Muñoz, the Socialist Party (PS) has bacheletist Paula Narváez and the Christian Democrats (DC) has Ximena Rincón, another legendary group fell out of favor. In fact, the senator asked not to be registered for the next primary after the catastrophic result of her community in the constituent elections.