In 1996 and 2021: the Taliban’s handbook for being moderate towards the world

The Taliban can occupy border crossings and government offices at AfghanistanBut what they control is far from a fully functioning country.

Services such as water, electricity and garbage collection falter as state workers hide in their homes. The ministries that oversee everything from diplomacy to public health have become little more than inactive office buildings.. The central bank is practically empty, since Washington he froze the Afghan government reserves deposited in US bank accounts.

And the group faces a parallel threat: that Afghans, foreign governments and even relevant security or intelligence services do not fully accept their authority, compromising their ability to consolidate their power.

But for the Taliban, all of these problems share at least one possible solution: make peace.

“Enmities have ended and we would like to live in peace, without internal or external enemies.“Said Tuesday Zabihullah Mujahid, the main spokesperson for the Taliban, during a meeting with journalists.

He pledged that the group would respect women’s rights, media freedom and the inviolability of foreign embassies. He would grant amnesty to Afghans who collaborate with the government backed by United States. He will not give refuge to international terrorists, as he did during his previous period in power, from 1996 to 2001.

The Rise in public relations marks new chapter in fight against Taliban, one almost as risky as anyone else on the battlefield.

They must persuade foreign powers to send aid and lift sanctions if they are to rebuild the most essential parts of a government, let alone start rebuilding a country devastated by 42 years of war.

The group could also use foreign recognition to bolster its legitimacy in its country, convincing officials and ordinary citizens to accept its reign. And, as the Taliban learned in 2001, when an invasion led by United States kicked them out of power, their reputation as the world’s outcast can be a serious drag.

The result is scenes that spin in your head, like the press event of Mujahedin, with hardened fighters striving to appease the very foreign powers they have dedicated their lives to expelling, and trying to soften the harsh ideology that drives their movement.

It is also a strategy that almost all modern rebel groups follow to seize power..

The victorious insurgents are in desperate need of “international legitimacy, support and help“To cement his government,” wrote the specialist in civil wars Monica Duffy Toft.

It can take decades. The communist rebels who seized the China continental in 1949 did not obtain the recognition of the The United Nations until 1971. Washington did so only in 1979, as part of a readjustment of the Cold War which had been in the works for years. Both were victories almost as hard as the civil war that brought them to power.

Corn now recognition is achieved primarily by showing respect for political and human rights, as well as to serve the security interests of the great powers.

When Ugandan rebels, accused of crippling human rights abuses, occupied the capital in 1986, they quickly promised restraint, including amnesty for those who had supported the old order.

His current career has not kept its democratic promises. But they sidestepped the world’s worst fears by a margin wide enough to secure diplomatic recognition and foreign aid, cementing their hold on power. The rebel government was even considered for a few years as a model of reform in the 1990s, although it is now widely regarded as a dictatorship.

In 1994, the ethnic militias tutsi they took control of Rwanda in the midst of the genocide of his compatriots tutsi. Despite expectations of retaliation, the rebels formed a government of pan-ethnic unity and launched a process of reconciliation that is still considered a global model.

Rwanda’s famous post-genocide democracy finally turned into authoritarianism. But it remains sufficiently dependent on external support to keep at least some of its first promises, in particular by responding to Western demands.

However, not all promises are kept. And the Taliban have been there before: Upon taking power for the first time in 1996, the group sought global acceptance by promising restraint at home and conciliation abroad..

But the Taliban’s efforts to achieve these goals faltered at best, hampered by inexperience, internal divisions and ideological fervor. The housed group Al-Qaeda and imposed brutal restrictions on women and minorities, infuriating foreign powers.

In 1997 he sent envoys to new York to apply for a position at The United Nations. But the delegation asked the secretary general of the HIM HIM, without realizing that recognition passes through the vote of the member states of the body. Alone Pakistan, The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have never recognized the Taliban government as legitimate.

Regardless of the ideological moderation of the current Taliban leadership, their understanding of diplomatic affairs and their concern for the world position appear to have increased dramatically.

“The search for diplomatic and political recognition has been a constant in the struggle of the Taliban“To regain power,” he wrote this spring. Barnett R. Rubin, an expert in Afghanistan.

The negotiators of the group have repeatedly insisted on the desire to normalize relations with Washington and other foreign powers, describing it as a priority. It seems that they now understand better the demands of these countries and, as during the press conference in Mujahedin, how to satisfy them at least from the mouthpiece.

If so, foreign governments can expect the Taliban to keep their word as long as the outside world is worth it, but no more.

Insurgencies that last for years tend to give rise to hardliners, but also, as civil war expert Terrence Lyons has written, to internal discipline.. In a study of rogue governments, Lyon he found that they were naturally inclined to authoritarianism, but that they were able to offer a certain democracy when they found it in their best interests.

Fears that the Taliban will keep their word, perhaps as soon as the Americans complete their withdrawal, is rife in Afghanistan. After promising restraint in 1996, the group turned Kabul’s central football stadium into a scene of public executions and amputations..

Baits and changes are not unheard of, especially when they target national audiences with less power to hold leaders to account. After taking power in China, Mao Zedong called on intellectuals, students and others to publicly criticize his new government. But later he imprisoned or killed, in large numbers, those who had accepted his offer..

Analysts point out that while the Taliban’s promises are real, they are almost certainly pragmatic in their best interests, and any ideological change is a secondary factor.

However, rogue governments in small aid-dependent countries, such as Uganda and Rwanda, have shown that they are careful not to upset their foreign donors.

While both have backslid on democracy and human rights, it has come as Western powers downplayed both issues, instead prioritizing counterterrorism and other goals.

The Taliban have shown signs of understanding this calculation, pointing to their battles against the small affiliate of the Islamic state in the country.

In the last few years of peace talks, the group seems to have internalized a hard lesson, he concluded. Insist on, academic of Afghanistan. As much as the Taliban prevail on the battlefield, they will always be the weaker party in global diplomacy, playing with American terms.

“The Taliban (rightly) thinks they can expect more than military pressure from the United States and NATO; they can never hope for more than America’s reluctance to help“, wrote.

Insurgents now oversee one of the poorest and most isolated states in the world. Whether they see it in their best interests to keep their promises probably depends not only on their beliefs and personal sincerity, but also on the incentives that the outside world creates for them.

(C) The New York Times.-

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