In February, the country generated a trade surplus for the sixth consecutive month

For the sixth consecutive month, the total value of the country's exports exceeded that of imports in February. The resulting surplus of $ 460 million, however, was not achieved by a significant increase in foreign sales (up only 3.7%), but by a collapse in international purchases year-on-year, which fell the 22nd month, 9%, product of the devaluation and contraction of economic activity.

Specifically, Argentina exported goods and services in February for an amount of US $ 4464 million, compared with US $ 4304 million last year, and imports for a total value of US $ 4004 million. US $ 5196 million in the same month in 2017. This led to a deficit of US $ 892 million.

The drop in the level of external purchases is mainly due to the decrease in the quantities purchased (-21.9%), the price having barely fallen (-1.3% from one year to the other). In the context of unbundling, imports registered a decline in most products, with intermediate goods distinguishing themselves as the one with the highest contribution, down 9.8% from one year to the next. other and accounting for 34% of Argentina's imports. "This is due to the drop in imports of textiles and footwear, linked to the decline in local production and the decline in consumption, which is expected to continue throughout the year," they said. in the council. Abeceb during the badysis of the INDEC report

"In contrast, purchases of motor vehicles (-46.5%), capital goods (-32.6%) and consumer goods (-28.8%), which together account for 37%, continue to decline., 4% of total imports Among the main sources of imports, those of China (-33.9%) and Brazil (-37.4%) decreased, while those of the United States increased (4.1%)), "they added.

Exports grew, driven by external sales of manufactured goods of industrial origin (5.5%), manufactured goods of agricultural origin (4.1%) and fuels and energy products (3%). .

The projections

"By 2019, we expect the trade balance to show a surplus, which we are projecting at $ 11 million, if that were the case, it would have the best balance since 2010," says a report. from the LCG consulting firm.

"The improvement will come mainly on the export side, which we estimate will be about $ 71.6 billion, or $ 9,000 million more than in 2018 – and will reach the highest value since 2014. Growth will be badociated with improved harvest and gain competitiveness after the devaluation will also help, on the import side, particularly affected by weak demand, the decline will also help to improve the outcome of the exchange, in total, it is expected to decline by about 7.5% to reach 60.5 billion euros, "they added.

According to Abeceb, "external adjustments will continue in 2019 due to a domestic demand that will continue to decline, delayed effects of a lower peso and increased agricultural and oil production".

"As the economy picks up in the margin, imports will stop declining as they have experienced in recent months, if exports rise by 12.8 percent in 2019 and if imports drop by 6.3% on average, the trade balance would show an excess balance of US $ 8 160 million, compared to a deficit of US $ 3.882 million in 2018 and a deficit of US $ 8 309 million in 2017 ", they said. concluded.