in full recession, bet on the countryside as a motor to recover the economy



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Economy

To lower tensions, Mauricio Macri visited the exhibition La Rural yesterday and I try to send a political gesture to the countryside this way .

It was a discreet visit, without official action and that lasted only 10 minutes, in which the President ratified his decision to maintain intangible the progressive lowering of retentions to the sector against the internal and external pressures to balance the fiscal accounts, while highlighting the activity as the main motor of Argentine exports.

"I've already said that is not an intelligent tax ] that does not promote exporting more every day, because that generates work The field has led to the task of exporting, they must continue to accompany the rest of the industry, mining, oil and gas, value-added, "he baderted, and concluded:" What we have committed is what needs to be accomplished "

The Presence of the President at the Fair of Palermo, with the Minister of Agribusiness, Luis Miguel Etchevehere I am This agreement is with the release of the INDEC of what could be the beginning of the recession predicted by the government itself. The Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity showed in May a 5.8% decline the largest since 2004, due to the impact of the devaluation and the severe drought that hit the countryside, where activity sank 35.2%

With his visit confirmed at the last moment, Macri returned to to intervene in the struggle that shakes the party in power for changes to the deductions promoted by a sector of provincial officials and allied governors to comply with the agreement with the IMF. This is the case of the Minister of Finance, Nicolás Dujovne who spent the weekend with the director of the agency, Christine Lagarde, and the governor of Jujuy, Gerardo Morales, who asked a few days ago to "revisit the problem" during the crisis

According to a report by Dujovne published by this means last week, the state would save between $ 1,500 and $ 2 billion if the deregulation of export duties on grains was suspended in 2019. The supply of resources to reduce the fiscal deficit at 1.3 in 2019 also divides Peronism at a time when the provinces are negotiating how to distribute the adjustment with Nation. In the last hours, the governor of Salta, Juan Manuel Urtubey asked to "maintain the rules."

In the face of internal politics, a large number of rural businessmen evaded authorities and chose to express their concerns in face-to-face meetings with government officials . In the Rosario Stock Exchange estimate that the loss of more than 28 million tons of grain (20 million soybeans and 8 million corn) per sec is equivalent to a fall of $ 8,500 million of export receipts

"We support the government's decision to lower the holdbacks," said BCR chairman, Alberto Padoán, at iProfesional.

Vicentín – one of the country's leading grain producers – was one of the representatives of the agribusiness industry who participated Tuesday in the last week from the act that led the Liaison Committee to La Rural to commemorate the 10 years of rejection to Resolution 125, spearheaded by the government of Cristina Kirchner, that fixed mobile retentions.

Uncertainties and Commercial Claims
The Government has tried to calm agriculture in the last days. Yesterday, he declared the agricultural emergency due to drought in the regions of Chaco, Santa Fe and Córdoba a measure that allows producers to access credits at a rate of 27% .

Etchevehere received last week the rural entities to address the problems of the meat chain where they denounce that there is 20% of the mbadacre of cattle in the informality . Discussions will continue next week with the head of cabinet, Marcos Peña .

In the framework of sectoral tables, refrigerators last week raised in Macri that prices "none will increase in the coming months," because "there is a very important increase of the supply, which has led to an increase in exports by 60%. "

Overall, some of the major, like BRF, began a bailout process for which he has dismissed 160 employees and expects Quickfood to follow the same path.

In La Rural, meanwhile, come insufficient official measures. "Most do not take loans at 27% because after 1945, we can not pay them at this rate and many are already in debt," said a Entre Ríos rural entrepreneur at the newspaper. Nor do they have any certainty about the economic leadership of Cambiemos, which has already consumed $ 2.2 billion of the US $ 15 billion granted by the IMF. "They are shocked, they do not know where to go. The IMF uses it to contain the dollar and inflation," warned another representative of the agricultural sector since the fair in Palermo . According to rural people, the devaluation of more than 60% which favors exports is offset by the impact of drought and an inflation which, according to calculations Due to drought and declining consumption, some private consultants already predict a stagnation of the economy in 2018, higher than the estimate in the letter of intent with the IMF between 0.4 and 1.4%.

"The impact of drought has been key to explain the fall of the last two months, and the negative effect of the exchange rate jump in the rest of the productive sectors begins The biggest impact will be felt in the second half of the year, "warns Ecolatina.

Less pessimistic, Banco Francés estimates that the economy will grow 0.5% over the year thanks to the good performance of the first quarter. For the financial institution, the government managed to avoid a "messy" adjustment in the level of activity, but predicted that "in the coming months he will see a deterioration in the economy and employment, with an acceleration of inflation that could affect the social conflict .

Finally, the bank also ruled out the authorities' future review of tax measures in favor of the business sector. "The greatest risk for the economy is that the attention of cyclical emergencies as well as the political cost of rebalancing the economy towards greater savings, led the government not only to take a break structural reforms (such as work) but returning to the budgetary pacts already reached, endangering the tax reduction distorting "said BBVA

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