In May, economic activity decreased by 5.8% – :: El Litoral – News – Santa Fe – Argentina

Due to drought and the exchange rate

In May, economic activity fell by 5.8%

It's the second month of contraction, after 13 months of consecutive growth. It's the worst fall of Macri's tenure.

Editorial El Litoral

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Economic activity collapsed last May by 5.8% compared to the same month of 2017, which represents the largest Sharp contraction of the Macri era, according to reported the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec).

Data from the Monthly Economic Activity (Emae) Estimator for the fifth month of the year were far worse than badysts expected. A survey conducted by Reuter forecast a contraction of 1.8%.

It was mainly due to the collapse of 35.2% of agricultural activity due to drought. In addition, fishing fell sharply (-29.2%) and transport and communications (-4.9%).

For its part, the sectors that had a positive impact on the indicator are real estate, commercial and rental activities. (4%), Financial intermediation (10.8%) and Construction (4.4%).

The seasonally adjusted indicator contracted by 1.4% compared to last April, the month in which the indicator recorded an annual decline of 0.6%

. In this way, the agency responsible for public statistics reflected the recession that began in the second quarter, particularly because of the impact of the drought that has affected large areas of the country.

three months, the results were different: in January, Emae confirmed a 4% increase; in February, it rose to 5% and in March to 2.1%, still in the measure compared to 2017.

Since taking office of Mauricio Macri, the sharpest drop in the indicator has was recorded in June 2016, with a percentage of 4.9% in the interannual measure, followed by July of the same year with 4.5%, as part of a deepening of the reduction initiated in April.

Data was the largest since July 2009, although from this period the agency changed the measurement methodology.

On 15 major business lines, Indec recorded May 6 with a negative sign, of which only two decline at double-digit rates

Agriculture, ln 39; Livestock, hunting and forestry were the branch of activity with the highest incidence in the annual contraction of Emae for the month of May, the agency said.

The other branches that contributed to the drop in the indicator They were net taxes ios subsidy and Transportation and Communications, added

By contrast, the real estate, business and leasing, financial intermediation and construction were the sectors with the greatest positive impact.

On a year in June, so that cumulated in the first half of 2018 a decrease of 0.2% per year, according to Orlando Ferreres consultant. In contrast, the seasonally adjusted index rose by 0.1% per month

During the month of June, the manufacturing industry was affected by sharp declines in more relevant. More specifically, in the food and beverages sector, there was a contraction of 6.8% from one year to the next, with a 14.1% drop in the production of food and beverages. oils and a decrease of 8% in the drinks category.

Similarly, the 13.4% drop in automobile production compared to the previous year is also notable, negatively impacted by labor disputes in Brazil, which affected the normal operation of the terminals.

This had an impact on the observed trajectories of segments such as base metals (-1.3% year-on-year), which also suffers from the weak dynamism of construction, as do non-metallic minerals (-0 , 9% year-on-year).

down 4.1% compared with the same month of last year reported in the chemical industry, conditioned by scheduled production shutdowns. That said, the short-term outlook is not encouraging, given the macroeconomic environment that has been set up locally, and from an international perspective that is not beneficial.