In terms of trade, the country could benefit from a substitute from the United States.

China could buy more soy and meat in Argentina, although global growth slows in the long run

Patience
porcelain faced with the persistent tariff threats of
United States
It seems to be over yesterday. Analysts say it affects Argentina in many different ways.
greater commercial uncertainty brake or
slows investments, which anticipates a
global slowdown of the gross product and therefore,
Demand for products and services decreases.

As well
devaluation of the renminbi, the Chinese currency, makes the prices of products imported by China become more expensive. This could lead to a decline in demand for commodities, even though badysts should not affect trade with Argentina in terms of quantities.

In the short term, however, China is also reducing its purchases of US goods and looking for alternative suppliers. In this case, Argentina could benefit from increased demand for soy and pork. Although this is an advantage for very particular sectors.

"The dispute between the United States and China began as a trade war and then spread to several dimensions, including investment, technology and geopolitics. 39 exchange is added, "badyzes the Chilean consultant Osvaldo Rosales, former director of international trade and integration Cepal-United Nations.

"Until now, China was holding the exchange rate and yesterday it stopped doing so and is a political warning, we need to see how the United States responds by threatening to impose tariffs on more Chinese products.optimism.The devaluation could affect the terms of trade, which would reduce tax revenues in this country, "he adds.

Emma Fontanet, of the ICBC Foundation (owned by the bank of the same name, of Chinese origin), does not believe that the devaluation of the Chinese currency affects the demand for Argentine products, because for the second largest economy in the world, the Argentina is a strategic point. "

"I do not believe that China will reduce demand because the Chinese government has decided to move closer to Argentina, but there could be a stronger price bargain." Investments in the country would not fall. because of the trade war, but China is lagging behind, waiting to see what will happen to the local presidential elections, "says the badyst.

Matías Bolis Wilson, chief economist of the Chamber of Commerce and Services Argentina (ACC), agrees that the impact for Argentina will be moderate. "China does not impose tariffs on Argentine products, unlike in the US However, uncertainty and the slowdown in the real economy are the most serious problem. The uncertainty of the trade war will be long, the more it will be affected – the speed of growth of the global economy, "he said.

Juan Manuel Garzón, from the Institute for Research of the Mediterranean Foundation, stresses in particular that the Chinese government is asking its companies not to buy products in the United States. "This goes beyond the devaluation: China is diverting trade and looking for other suppliers." Among the agri-products that the United States sells to China are soybeans, pork, some products dairy, beef and smaller cereals, such as alfalfa, which could replace many of this list, although only soy and meat can respond quickly to increased demand in the short term. " he said, stating that there would be more than 30 million tonnes of soybeans that are not yet sold.

In the first half of the year, China was Argentina's second largest trading partner, after Brazil. Exports to China totaled 2365 million USD and imports, 4447 million USD, according to Indec. The trade deficit was 2082 million. Similarly, trade with China accounted for 7.7% of total Argentine exports and 17.7% of total imports.

Enrique Mantilla, president of the Chamber of Exporters of the Argentine Republic, does not see in the short term "substantial changes, although it is an issue that needs to be followed closely". And he adds: "With the devaluation of the Chinese currency, there are two interpretations: on the one hand, the Beijing government is dissatisfied with the negotiations with the United States and the strategy is then to destabilize the global financial markets. so that unfavorable results force him to Donald Trump to change his position ".

"For structural and cyclical reasons, the Chinese economy is slowing at a time when the global economy is showing signs of weakening." In the face of this synchronization, China believes that a devaluation is desirable for internal reasons, "he concluded.