In the United States, they do not believe in a new Kirchnerism

WASHINGTON.- In the administration of Donald Trump, in large corporations and in financial investors, there is an almost unanimous view of Argentina's future. The generalized desire is

that Mauricio Macri be reelected.

And above all, they hope that Kirchnerism will not come back to power, which they do not think has changed to moderate their radical positions of the past.

The big investors, who in recent days have begun to believe in

a scenario of re-election of the government of Cambiemos,

they still find that the balance achieved in recent weeks by Macri is very fragile. The change in expectations that has improved economic conditions and created a more favorable climate before the elections should be ratified by voters, admitted the

Washington,

this has already begun to empty for the holidays and the arrival of oppressive and sticky heat.

At the White House, they recognize that they are not relaxed about what could happen in Argentina. The future is at stake, as the Trump government has pledged to support Macri at the IMF when the country entered the disaster zone in the midst of the financial crisis. And a change of hands at Casa Rosada could mean a turning point in relations between the two countries. Positions to choose, do not doubt: "We would prefer the vision of Macri," they maintain in the Republican administration.

The mistrust caused here by a possible Kirchner government with Alberto Fernández to the presidency is inconceivable. But that does not mean the bridges are broken or the doors are closed. On the contrary. In recent weeks at the State Department, steps have been taken in front of the big investment banks to have representatives of Kirchnerism come to Washington to present their plans. The same thing has happened with companies and other government agencies.

"We talk to everyone who is interested in talking to us, we are open to everyone, the worst thing to do is to close the bridges," said a Trump official. However, mistrust remains open. Eight years after the episode when the then foreign minister, Héctor Timerman, had opened with Ezeiza, with clamp, equipment of the Pentagon arrived by a plane of the American Air Force. This conflict arises all the time when it is a question of a possible return of Kirchnerism. Those who come, they say, are the same as before and now say that they are different, but nobody believes that they have changed. According to Benjamin Gedan, Latin American expert and director of the Argentine program at the Wilson Center, one of the issues examined with great attention is the direction that could take the Argentine economy. And, he said at a meeting at the American Chamber of Commerce, it is now difficult to determine the type of relationship that could exist between the United States and the prospective government of the United States. Alberto Fernández-Cristina Kirchner.

The political system of this city, which includes Republicans and Democrats, is firmly attached to Macri's victory, because he understands that if he wins, Cambiemos will continue the program of sharply reducing the current budget deficit and improving the country's economic conditions. . . If Argentina adopts this direction, it will continue, it will increase again, there will be investments and it may not need to discuss with the IMF an extension of the deadlines for the payment of the debt. from this agency. With the stability of the economy and inflation below 2.5%, a rebound in rapid growth can be triggered, say the investment banks.

At the Embbady of Argentina, they estimate that there is an approved investment portfolio of about 4,500 million US dollars and that companies expect it to that the election results execute them. The majority would be at Vaca Muerta. The wait for the future of gas and oil exploitation in this area has already led Ambbadador Fernando Oris de Roa to travel four times since the beginning of this year to Houston to meet with oil investors.

The North American Chamber of Commerce in Argentina (AmCham) believes that structural reforms must be undertaken to ensure the sustainability and predictability of the economy. The most important ones, they understand, are social security, taxes and work, and also rethink the education system. "Structural corruption is worrisome and the pension system is not sustainable," said AmCham director Alejandro Díaz.

But there is still a lot of time to travel. In the middle are PASO and the October elections. Banks and companies follow the day-to-day investigations and each variant changes mood. "If in the PASS the kirchnerismo is around 43% and the difference with Cambiemos is 7 points, the navigation in calm waters will end and there will be a little rock" n "roll, said an economist from one of the major banks. They operate in Argentina at a meeting with investors. Whatever the case may be, the banker understands that the government will have funds to deal with any turbulence.

What generates turbulence in the privileged link that the Macri government has with the Trump government, although for the moment they are clandestine, is the relationship between Argentina and China. The eventual agreement to finance the construction of a nuclear power plant with Chinese technology has proved catastrophic in the White House, admitted an Argentine diplomatic source. "We tell them," he said, "that this is a project of the previous government and they tell us, 'Why are they pursuing it?' "".

The Argentinian government has received a clear message from the Trump administration: there is no problem in trade, but the problem is investment in the communications sector, infrastructure, data management and energy nuclear.

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