In Venezuela, the war is about declarations | While …

From Caracas

Caracas has four seasons: spring, summer, autumn, Caribbean. They all hold in a day and their night. They overlap, they mark rhythms, moments, especially for motorcycles that flee the showers that are already daily: only ten minutes and it seems that the sky has emptied. It's the daily life in a city that almost completely condenses national politics. What happens outside the capital is new when it comes to strategic territories in the geography of war.

One of these territories is the border with Colombia. Nicolás Maduro has announced the reopening of the international crossing between the state of Táchira and the city of Cúcuta, a central news of February 22 and 23, when the bridges were turned into cinematographic scenarios of an attempt to find a way out. forced entry into Venezuelan territory. The reopening took place in the normality of a region that combines the effects of Colombian extraction smuggling, paramilitarism, the country's economic and media headquarters.

The news of Juan Guaidó, on the other hand, is in decline. The self-proclaimed president spent at least a little over four months on a promotion catapulted by Donald Trump's support to his current attempts to stay on the agenda. The trend to its loss of strength is due to its inability to deliver on its promises, which are the product of the initial miscalculation that led it to announce the impending fall of the Maduro government.

What kind of Trump result did he conceive when he blessed him with a tweet? A case like that which occurred with the case of the conflict that opened against Mexico on May 30 and that had a resolution last Friday night: a threat in an asymmetry of power, an encirclement of the adversary, a forced negotiation with shots via Twitter, a resolution to show an international trophy for its domestic policy that already takes the form of a presidential campaign. Venezuela should also be a quick victory.

This did not work for several reasons: the diversification of markets to find exit doors to the economic blockade – mainly with China and Russia – the government's ability to cope with the scenarios of these characteristics produced experiences from 2017 and 2014, the incapacity of the coup plan of state aimed at breaking up the Bolivarian national armed forces and periodic mobilization policy in the street, especially to contribute to the balance of internal forces of Chavez .

To these elements is added what US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has recognized: the divisions and personal ambitions of the Venezuelan right. "Maintaining the Venezuelan opposition together was diabolically difficult," he said in a recent audio recording, adding that 40 opposition figures had presidential ambitions. This division of the opposition is public: one sector claims that a single force can lead to the fall of Maduro and does not recognize Chavismo as a political actor, another states that the exit may include dialogues, provided the roadmap starts. for the departure of the current president, and another maintains caution in his statements because of the current lack of clarity of the scenario.

Elliot Abrams, an American special envoy for the case, said in an article that the resolution should pbad, in part, by the departure of Nicolás Maduro and the recognition of the National Assembly (NA) by Chavez, is say that the deputies return to the premises.

From there, three readings are removed. In the first place, the public message of Abrams is based on the irrevocable goal of the departure of the president, while acknowledging that Chavismo, mainly the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, is a political actor in his future scenario. Secondly, one of the central points of the debate / attempt at dialogue revolves around the legislative branch, which means both the National Assembly and the National Constituent Assembly, as well as the National Assembly. a possible electoral resolution. Thirdly, his statements seek to divide Chavismo and create false leads: the operations to find the points of arrest are private and public.

Maduro has repeatedly referred to AN and said in each of them that Chavismo must prepare for an early election campaign. As for the ANC, it has ratified the decision made by voters to extend their operation until the end of the year 2020. On the economic front, the government calls for the lifting of the US blockade, while US Security Advisor John Bolton announced his intention to intensify, particularly in the oil field.

These are the last public statements of each party. It is not known yet whether there will be a next stop in Oslo, the city where the first steps have been made. The President of Russia has hinted that, in a statement in which he expressed support for a peaceful resolution, he confirmed that his government was not creating a military base in Venezuela or taking troops.

"So, choose the President of the United States, wherever you are, or choose the British Prime Minister or the President of France, what would happen?" I would like to ask those who support this, have you gone mad? Do you understand what this can lead to? ", Said the president about Guaidó's self-proclamation and stakes. His statements were made during the meeting with the President of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping, and the St. Petersburg forum, where cooperation agreements between Venezuela and Russia were signed.