Indian variant of coronavirus more resistant to single dose, scientists warn of third wave

British scientists and epidemiologists warn: “The third wave could be underway in Britain”, with the help of the Indian variant. This will jeopardize the opening, which the government plans for the next 21st of June. A visible increase in hospitalizations has started in recent days.

When Brits take advantage of their sunny holidays on Mondays and run to beaches and parks during the day hottest of the year, epidemiologists warn that a geographic expansion of the Indian variant is “absolutely predictable.”

Today, it represents three quarters of cases in the kingdom. It is contagious and spreads quickly. France imposed the closure of the border to the British, except for exceptions.

The variant known as B.1.167.2 It is the one that thrives in the kingdom and is more transmissible than the Kentish variant and more resistant to vaccinesespecially if they have received a single dose.

Scientists warning

Scientists at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, which detects positive cases through genome sequence, revealed the variants that develop in Great Britain.

When the Indian variant was originally in Bolton, Blackburn and Darwen, the date of May 22 shows it in Baberg, Wycombe and Cornwall, much further, although the numbers are still low. It has also been detected in the Midlands and in Croydon, south London.

Professor Jeffrey Barret, director of the Genomics Initiative for Covid 19 at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, said that “the detection shows that, in the coming weeks, these small, more geographically displaced numbers are going to be a big pollution, like the one we saw in the initial contaminations of the Indian variant ”.

Martin McKee, professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said he believed “Had begun the third wave ”.

“We can already see that the current measures are not stopping the cases, which are increasing rapidly in many parts of the country. It looks a lot like us now early in a third wave, ”he said.

Open in June, a big risk

“Barring a miracle, opening more in June is a big risk. The increase in cases, which we are currently seeing, should lead to a reassessment of the most recent relaxation, ”he said.

Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, expressed concern that the UK was seeing the first signs of a third wave earlier this month as it became clear that the Indian variant was spreading in the community.

Epidemiologists worry about the UK reopening, crowds, trips to “Land of amber” and above all, his return to the country. The “amber countries” are affected by the arrival of thousands of Britons on vacation, at the beach or in their second homes.

With new infections at the level last seen in March, experts have warned against lifting restrictions too early.

Scientists alert ministers that a third wave of coronavirus may have already started in Britain, casting doubt on England’s lifting plans all restrictions closing in three weeks.

Experts have warned that any increase in hospital admissions for coronavirus could leave the UK Health Service (NHS) struggling to cope with the battle over dropping non-Covid cases and operations which have not been processed. from start of the pandemic.

The government wants to open

Downing Street insisted it was “too early” to speculate that the plan to lift all lockdown rules in England on June 21 could go ahead.

Hotel industry he became worried. He called on the government to give “notice” to companies preparing for and investing in the opening.

Vaccine Minister Nadhim Zahawi has refused to admit that some restrictions, such as wearing masks and working from home, could remain in place to reduce the spread of the virus.

Scientific advisers believe that, to the extent possible, working from home makes sense beyond June as that would reduce the number of people who come into contact with each other.

An increase in cases would change the roadmap of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who according to his former adviser Dominc Cummings, preferred to see a bunch of deaths in a third lockdown.

Despite progress in the vaccination program, advisers are uncertain to what extent new infections, which are at levels last seen in late March, will translate into hospitalizations and deaths.

Thousands of unvaccinated people

Epidemiologists believe the variant can spread among the thousands of people who have not received the vaccine. There is an Indian, Kashmiri, Pakistani and Bangladeshi community in Britain that has so far resisted vaccination out of respect for its traditions.

Research from Public Health England, suggesting the new variant is highly transmissible and partially resistant to vaccines, has raised fears that a third wave could overwhelm the NHS.

On the BBC’s Andrew Marr show, Zahawi refused to rule out that the planned unlock could be changed on June 21. The government will make an announcement on June 14.

“We need to look at the data and we will share it with the country,” he said. “It would be completely wrong of me to speculate now. At the moment, we don’t have enough data. There are some parts of the country where there is literally no B.1.617.2 and everything is fairly stable; in other parts of the country it is starting to outperform the B.1.1.7 variant, the Kent variant, ”he said.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak was equally cautious, telling the Mail on Sunday: “We will know more as let’s get closer to the date“.

A scientist from the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) also expressed concern. “If things turn out the way I think they will, we will probably end with a third wave. It will be a big wave of infections and there will be death and serious illness, ”he said.

“This will put pressure on the NHS at a time when we are trying to get back to normal and it will be necessary to redouble government efforts to step up vaccination and seek a boost from the waning (immune) response,” said he warned.

Hospitals are already under extreme pressure in Great Britain before the flow of patients no coronavirus, who were delayed in the outbreak, before planning to lift the restrictions. 9% of hospital beds are occupied by non-Covid patients and critical beds are occupied by 4% by Covid patients, according to NHS directors.

These are patients who need urgent Care for major operations, mental health issues, which have a slow recovery to be released. Also among those hospitalized by Covid in regions of Indian variants they are “younger patients”.

“Only some have the double dose of the vaccine,” said Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers. The message is clear : “If you can, get vaccinated.”

The government does not want nor listen talk about the third wave. Plans to require Covid documents to enter mass events will likely be lifted to ensure it can lift restrictions in time – June 21.

Paris, correspondent

ap