India’s SARS-CoV-2 variant worries UK as restrictions begin to be lifted

There are a lot of things known and a lot of things unknown about SARS-CoV-1 variant B.1.617.2.

“We know it is spreading rapidly (roughly doubling every week in the UK and nearly tripled last week, from 520 to 1,313 cases), which is taking hold in various parts of the country and is already the dominant variant in places like Bedford, Bolton and Blackburn. “So they began to explain to BMJ Stephen Reicher and his colleagues what is happening in this country with the Indian mutation of the novel coronavirus.

More, Compared to the dominant variant B.1.1.7, it is known that B.1.617.2 is highly likely to be more transmissible and could be better transmitted between people who are fully vaccinated.they quarreled.

It is not yet clear to what extent the faster transmission is due to the characteristics of the variant itself compared to the characteristics of those who are infected, and therefore how much more transmissible the variant itself is.

It is also unclear whether and to what extent the new variant compromises the ability of vaccines to protect against infection, hospitalization and death. or to prevent the infection from being passed on to others. It is not yet known whether this variant causes more serious disease.

In short, we know enough to say that this new variant could be extremely serious. As suggested by that country’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), cases of B.1.617.2 are reportedly 40-50% more transmissible than B.1.1.7, which “could lead to an increase in hospitalizations”.

“We don’t know enough to know how bad it would be if it became the dominant variant in the UK,” they agreed.

“We are therefore faced with a classic case of decision-making in uncertainty in which our choices necessarily depend not only on emerging data, but also on our evaluation of the various possible outcomes, which is both moral and ethical. political science ”. they quarreled. Essentially, how do you weigh the possibility of taking measures (in particular, delaying the reopening of interior spaces, including homes and places of entertainment) that subsequently prove unnecessary against the possibility of not taking action (allowing to the reopening to continue) that, through a new wave of pandemic, this has proved necessary after all?

However, before we get to that choice, there are a number of things to do anyway, regardless of the characteristics of the new variant, but made all the more urgent by the potential threat it poses.

First of all, for them, The situation that is generating the emergence of dangerous new variants stems from how the pandemic is more severe than ever on a global scale, with infections spreading uncontrollably in South America, South Asia and Africa. are starting to develop in Africa., reinforcing the adage that “no one is safe until everyone is safe” and emphasizes the need for vaccine redistribution in the short term and vaccine patent exemptions in the medium / long term.

Secondly, much more systematic and effective border controls are needed to limit the circulation of new variants. “The current traffic light system, where quarantine is only needed for those coming from certain countries, is leaking and slow,” they agreed. By the time a country is identified as a problem and placed on the quarantine “red list”, it is usually too late. It is estimated that 20,000 travelers have arrived in the UK from India since B.1.617.2 became a threat ”.

Third, you need an efficient local isolation, tracing, and testing system that not only has testing capabilities but also has enough trained contact trackers to identify infections as quickly as possible. In addition, more financial and practical support is needed so that those who need to self-isolate can do so. Indeed, while B.1.617.2 is found to be more transmissible than B.1.1.7 among people living together (as anecdotal evidence suggests), this makes it particularly important to provide decent local housing outside the home. .

In fourth place, In view of the growing evidence regarding aerosol transmission and therefore the essential role of ventilation as a means of mitigation, adequate ventilation should be a criterion for reopening of trade., with an improved inspection regime and grants available to improve ventilation, both in business and in the home.

“Our assessment is that this new variant of concern has fundamentally changed the risk we face and therefore the government’s fourth criterion has not been met to move the roadmap forward.a -the experts pointed out-. It should be noted that a break of a few weeks would provide sufficient evidence to inform the decision as to whether the increase in internal makeup can continue without risking a third wave. The break must be accompanied by continued financial support to the companies and workers concerned ”.

And they concluded: “If the fear of delaying the roadmap is economic, we would refer to the evidence that countries that act early and appropriately to suppress the infection achieve better outcomes, not just in terms of health, but also economic, and in terms of relationship. civil liberties. If a new wave sets in, economic devastation would equalize health care costs ”.

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