Infectologists believe third wave inevitable due to Delta variant, but say worst of pandemic is over

In the midst of the debate over third doses, as the vaccination plan continues to ramp up and Delta variant delays its large-scale distribution in Argentina, questions arise around a third wave: When will this happen? And what impact can this have?

TN.com.ar he consulted specialists who have studied the pandemic since zero minute. And despite some differences in approach, there is a general consensus: a resurgence of infections is inevitable, but the country already overcome the worst chapters of the coronavirus.

“A third wave, in terms of the number of infections we’re going to have. But it won’t be very high. It will also depend on social behavior, how much we respect the care policies. If there is a careful policy maintenance, we won’t have such a high wave, no matter how much Delta moves the other variants, ”he analyzes. Mario Lozano placeholder image, molecular virologist and former rector of the University of Quilmes.

Jorge geffner, immunologist from Conicet’s COVID unit, makes his projection: “We are going to have more widespread community circulation of the Delta variant. I think we’re headed for a third wave, but I don’t think we’ll get there at all at a level of mortality like the one we had in June of this year, with 600 deaths per day “.

Juan Carlos Cisneros, deputy director of Muñiz hospital, believes that “The third wave is not going to be very intense thanks to the progress of the vaccination”. AND Luis Camera, a member of the expert committee that advises the national government, says: “The big battle was the second wave and it is already behind us”.

The progress of the vaccination campaign and the experience of other countries allow conclusions to be drawn. “In European countries that have come from a summer with relaxed behaviors there has been a significant increase in casesBut when people got scared again and what Roberto Echenique (Conicet researcher) called “immunity to shit” started to prevail, they again prioritized care policies and cases started to prevail. decline. And they’ve gone down even when Delta is almost 100% prevalent, ”Lozano observes. And add: “This, added to the number of vaccinated in Argentina, suggests that a third wave will not be so big”.

“Now that Delta begins to circulate, the number of vaccinated in Argentina it is similar or even superior to what was done in European countries and the United States when this variant began to spread there “, notes the virologist.

“Today we are in a very quiet time, but I don’t think the Southern Cone will be spared from a high level of Delta traffic, which is causing problems throughout the Northern Hemisphere and in many other countries that have even a high level of vaccinated, like Israel, “Geffner assesses. And concludes: “I believe that we will be in a scenario closer to the United Kingdom than to the United States, which are doing very badly because 35% of the population is not vaccinated”.

According to data from the Public Vaccination Monitor, the country has already applied 43,696,315 vaccines. Out of the total number of people vaccinated, 28,183,966 received the first dose of serum and 15,512,349, the second. However, more than three million Argentines over 60 years they have not yet completed their immunization schedule. And more than three million citizens between 18 and 59 years old with comorbidities they are also waiting for their second dose.

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