Inflation and Lebacs – Journal El Ciudadano y la Región

The government will face another Tuesday fire test on the results of its economic policies: the INDEC calendar plans to spread that day the inflation of June and the semester. The central bank, at the same time, will proceed to a new megalithy of Lebac, the time bomb that it intends to disarm with little success and that in order to stop the dollar's price was to more than 40%

The dollar seemed to find a point of balance over the last two weeks the dollar, but after the accelerated appreciation of the peso that the central bank could hold despite wasting billions of dollars of its reserves. Now, it has fallen from the record of 29.57 pesos, but the danger has not occurred. The subjugation of the government to what "market thinks" ties the fate of their attempts. The expectation of speculative investors is centered on the immediate data published by the statistical institute and the result of the monthly auction conducted by the monetary authority. Private estimates place June's inflation between 3.5 and 4 percent. This is, "the highest in two years."

According to a study of the Statistical Institute of Workers (IET) of the Metropolitan University for Education and Work (Umet), the cost of living has climbed in twelve months to 29 , 5% "There are services in which the monthly registers of inflation increase up to 7.5 points, such as the recreation area.On the 5% in the health, out of the 4.3 in transport and communications, "says the report.

Economist Fausto Spotorno, a member of the Orlando Ferreres and Associates study, estimates June's inflation at 3.9%. The consultant Eco Go calculates it on the basis of its survey of retail prices (RPM) in 3.7

The official figure of the price increase will be published in parallel with the new test of the Central Bank: l & # 39; bidding for Lebac It is a significant maturity of about 536 million pesos, an amount that, according to market badysts, will not be renewed in full. This will happen a few days ago, the government issued a call for bids in dollars, which could be subscribed in pesos, dollars or Lebac. An attempt to disarm positions in Lebac that ignited, for a lot of wick to a worse explosive: the pbadage of central bank debt in pesos to that of the Treasury in dollars. With the devaluation, more difficult to cope with the state.

The Central Bank had renewed in June only 60% of the delay Lebac, 308,473 million pesos out of a total of 514,779 million. And this, despite the rise in the interest rate of 40 percent to the record of 47 per year for the shorter term, with the aim of making the peso more attractive and curbing the demand for dollars