Inflation has already reached the 29% target the government has set for the full year in seven months

Inflation will end in July at almost 3% and increase by 29% from January, the target that the government had set itself for the whole year and which has never been officially corrected.

Recognized official sources Infobae whatHe estimates that before the dollar jumped in recent days, it was between 2.5 and 3 percent, but it’s possible that with the currency rising, it could be closer to 3 percent. Meanwhile, the average of design offices, which forecast by the end of the year a price increase of 48% per year, it’s around 3.2 percent for this month.

The official indicated that this month, price volatility was reduced but at a high level and admitted that over the next two months the last 12 months result could be comfortably above 50% then it could fall in the last quarter due to the basis for comparison with 2020. Let us recall that inflation for June ended at 3.2% and 50.2% last year.

With this steady rise in prices – and economic activity partially recovering after the 2020 collapse – authorities admit that poverty data for the first half of the year may show a significant increase from the 40.9% recorded. over the same period 2020, as estimated by several private sector experts.

For the analysis of Ricardo Delgado ended at 3.4% this month and 52.3% in the last 12 months; Seido from Luciano Cohan in 3.2% and 50%; C&T of Camilo Tiscornia Yes Maria castiglioni 3.1% y 51%; LCG of Guido Lorenzo, between 3.5 and 4%; Economical of Miguel Kiguel 2.7%; and Macroview from the team Carlos Melconian-Rodolfo Santángelo and Eco Go from Marina Dal Poggetto in 3 percent. Thus, since January, according to Analytica, it has reached 29.5% and according to Eco Go to 28.7%.

Claudio Caprarulo, CEO of Analytica, said that “from August, after the seasonality of July, all the anchor points that the government uses, mainly rates and exchange rates, bring us to a monthly average of 2.5% ”. So this year “It will close at around 46% and for 2022 we are still working on the scenarios; the level of depreciation is expected to increase after November; the big question is how. And for that, the outcome of the elections and the state of negotiations with the IMF will be decisive ”.

Reducing inflation, said the economist at Es consultancy firm, is the “big money” of the economics team. “This shows that to lower inflation, we must also work on expectations. The economics team intervened on spending, rates and the exchange rate, imposed price controls, and despite that we ended up with inflation above 45%. The increase in the price of raw materials had a negative influence, but it does not explain everything. If we want to lower inflation, without a roadmap we cannot, ”he explained.

Immediately, he said: “Hopefully closing the deal with the IMF brings certainty about future debt commitments and allows them to present a plan. Statements by Cristina Kirchner Regarding the use of SDRs, it’s a good sign ”, in that the agency’s turnover will be used to repay part of the credit granted in 2018 and 2019.

For its part, LCG clarified that “during the third week of July, the increase in food prices was on average 1.1%, accelerating by 0.58 percentage point compared to the previous week”.

“The food and beverage index has shown monthly inflation of 3.2% on average over the past 4 weeks and 3.8% measured end-to-end over the same weeks,” said the consultant.

“The month will end a little above the general increase of 3.5%; June has been the best month and annual inflation will be around 50%, ”he said. Guido Lorenzo a Infobae.

“I estimate that it will be between 2.7 and 2.9%”, added the chief economist of Econviews, Andrés Borenstein. “He hit the 3% stick”, Indian Pablo Goldin by Macroview.

Meanwhile, the director of Anker Latin America, APC Furiase; explain that inflation for the month “remains around 3%; July is seasonally high, there are increases in prepaid, communications and tolls ”.

“It will not be easy at all to slow down the inflation rate despite the tariff peg and the official dollar, with financial dollars in recovery and with fiscal, monetary and income policy in expansionary mode for the election year, with a weaker supply of dollars of land and without credible nominal anchoring, ”he said.

Above all, “if, faced with the rise in financial dollars and the loss of reserves due to intervention in central bank bonds, the import group closes again”.

In any case, he foresees “a temporary and moderate slowdown in inflation to an average rate of 2.8 in the months leading up to the November elections”, a wish that the whole government surely shares with fervor.

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