Institutional crisis in Venezuela: two camps in action

From self-proclamation of Juan Guaidó as president, Venezuela is on the verge of civil war. A country divided into irreconcilable factions: everyone sees himself as good and demonizes the opponent, in a logic that spreads across the world and fractures Latin America.

Troika of terror. "The White House understands that there is a troika of terror in Latin America, with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, and very soon, strong measures will be taken against thisRepublican senator from Florida – with Cuban roots – Marco Rubio, the same as Tuesday night had warned on Twitter against the intentions of the secret police of Nicolás Maduro to arrest Gauidó and the other deputies of the National Assembly (AN) of Venezuela, the opposition body that is now haranguing the anti-Chavez march.

"The officials of the #SEBIN (Bolivarian Intelligence Service) should reconsider their plan for tomorrow before it is too late," wrote Rubio. "They are about to cross the line and give an answer that, believe me, they are not ready to deal with. They still have time to avoid it, "said the senator, one of the most influential voices in Washington in the US policy on Venezuela, which recognizes the connection between Guaidó and the White House. madurismo supports it to denounce the coup attempt by the United States and aligned.

(See also: Drums of war in Venezuela

"Yesterday, Juan Guaidó m asked for an appointment and he told me that he was under pressure today, that he was under pressure from everyone. The pressure will take us, so you know, "he said. Diosdado Cabello, President of the National Constituent Assembly of Venezuela (ANC) on his show on Venezuelan public television. The number two Chavismo said that Guaidó was presented at the meeting "disguised" to not be recognized, and that the day of his "usurpation" as acting president, he had sent "another message" to explain his actions. "If you do not keep your word, you will take it away, if you will, you will refute me. You'll understand, "Cabello threatened, remembering the 72-hour ultimatum that Maduro had given his opponents to leave the country. "It looks like it's going to ship from there," Cabello laughs, as he anticipates Guaidó's departure for the United States.

Supports and ranking. "The program had a phenomenal rating, was the third most seen yesterday in the world, "congratulated Maduro Cabello for its national network the next day, supported by the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ). "#Wearemaduro was a trend of yesterday in Europe and Turkey", The president continued to badert "international support" while holding a pocket constitution. "Here, no article says that someone raises their hand in a public square and proclaims himself president of the republic," he told Guaidó. And he has repeatedly supported Article 233 which "deals with the absolute faults of the President of the Republic, among which the abandonment of the mandate".

(Read also: under pressure from Maduro, US diplomats leave Venezuela)

And Maduro does not give up even though several countries ignore it and lend their support to Guaidó. Donald Trump was to recognize Wednesday the leader of the opposition as "the legitimate president of Venezuela. It had been agreed last night between US President Rubio and Mauricio Claver, director of the National Security Council of the Cuban-origin White House. "Guaidó appears as the ideal character of a transitional government: a son of soldiers doing studies in Washington, able to mobilize the people and to lead an offensive against Maduro ", underline the NEWS of the bench of the Republicans in the Senate.

American support was immediately added to that of Mauricio Macri, the Colombian Ivan Duque and Jair Bolsonaro (in Davos joint conference). And then, together, the 11 countries of the so-called Lima group, in recognition of the legitimacy of Guaidó.

(Read also: Cumbre Macri and Bolsonaro: neither little nor too much)

"The international community recognizes the legitimacy of this authority which asked if the president of the badembly allowed a majority of the population to demand the return of democracy," said the Argentine Foreign Minister. Jorge Faurie. "All Lima Group countries support the National Assembly and the actions of Juan Guaido as President. The president met with Guaidó. Our support and that of other countries give it the legitimacy to organize political consultations and call elections. This is the only way for the Venezuelan people to legitimate legitimately a president, "he added.

Diplomacy or boots. "Since Argentina We do not evaluate the breakdown of diplomatic relations. Our Embbady in Venezuela is open and operational, "says Faurie.

"It is important not to cut off diplomatic relations, something that Guaidó has asked of the world today", argues Susana Malcorra. The former Foreign Minister insists with the idea of ​​seeking mediation ("the Vatican or the UN are still options," he explains) an exit that closes the Venezuelan crack . "The cracks can be used in the short term for an election result, but as a worldview, the crack is not serving you.What does not mean a uniform thinking, that's the big difference," he said. he declared during a dialogue with NEWS.

(Read also: Susana Malcorra: "As a worldview, the crack does not help you")

The thought is not even uniform even in the Lima group. The Mexican Andrés Manuel López Obrador and the Uruguayan Tabaré Vázquez separated from the rest: were those who asked for the dialogue, but with the support of Maduro, who also has the support of Cuba, Bolivia, Nicaragua and El Salvador: Miguel Díaz Canel, Evo Morales, Daniel Ortega and Salvador Sánchez Cerén were the only ones Presidents of Nicolás Maduro's takeover area on Jan. 10, before fighting resumed in Venezuela. Y China and Russia are the big international allies.

"China supports the efforts of the Venezuelan government to maintain its sovereignty, independence and stability," said Foreign Minister Hua Chunying. Vladimir Putin was a little stronger: "The US interference in Venezuela can trigger a bloodbath," he suggested. And the centerpiece is Cuba: Raúl Castro talks every day with Maduro, suggests the island. And Venezuelan military service and secret services regularly report – or report, as the case may be – to the Cuban commanders who trained them. The Venezuelan army is the main supporter of the Chavez regime, and its loyalty to Maduro: in a statement read by the Minister of Defense, Vladimir PadrinoVenezuela's Bolivarian national armed forces decided last Thursday that they would not accept a "self-proclaimed president" or "would be subordinated to any foreign power", and that they were rejecting the "acts of Coarse interference of foreign governments.

Figures and cracks. Without justice or army from them, the strength of Guaidó seems to reside in the public opposition: 64.3% of citizens have recognized it as the highest authority in the country, according to a survey conducted on January 23 by Mexican pollster Mbadive Caller.. The urgent telephone survey of 2,000 Venezuelans showed that 88% of those who support the opposition legislator are "willing to take public measures" in their favor. The other side of the report is the supposedly sharp drop in support for the elected president, Nicolás Maduro, who, according to the poll, has managed to maintain only 35.7% of his presidential term. On this part of the members, 53% said they were willing to go out on the street to defend it.

(See also: Fear in Venezuela for the repression of the "coup d'etat")

"In Venezuela, we have not yet seen the numbers because it is a very recent event and the flow of information on the non-recognition of Maduro as president It's not clear, but there is a rejection of the management of his government. After 2014, Maduro managed to very rarely increase his image by 30%. It was a roller coaster about 32% like a roof. In the lowest moments, it reached 19%, "says Venezuelan consultant Oswaldo Ramírez at NOTICIAS, saying that" Maduro's absolute approval does not exceed 7 percentage points ".

The low popularity of the government is also reflected in a recent report by Ratio, the surveyor of Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB) in Caracas, which expressed a 68% dissatisfaction with regard to The direction. "The discomfort comes back after the hope that the economic ads generated in the population", The consultant said in early 2019. In August, Maduro raised the minimum wage, which allowed him to close the year up: "The best time of the government 36.5% declare to be satisfied with the government", report recorded at this moment. In the relief panorama, only 14% considered their personal situation "very bad", which had not happened since 2015.

(Read also: A star chavis against Maduro)

The "spring chavista" then coincided with "the worst moment of opposition", according to surveys conducted with the same consultant (the opposition, the decision and impartiality were divided into thirds) . But the prospects seem to have changed abruptly with the emergence of Guaidó. For Ramirez, the self-proclaimed interim president "has favorable conditions: he comes from the bad of a group of young people who have been fighting since 2007 and He has this collective image strength before deteriorating the acceptance of other opposition leaders. And it is a face that, even though it is not new, was not one of the major mediators of politics in Venezuela. "

More blood The scenario shows that Maduro will not give up. And played everything for the wholeGuaidó urges lunatics against the regime to reach the streets. The civil war that in this new stage already exceeds the ten dead, adding to the hundreds of demonstrators mbadacred by the police repression (less than 200 in 2017-2018 according to official figures, more than 5,000 for l '. opposition).

(Read also: Venezuelan fears: talking about politics and being spied on)

The images – with heartbreaking videos – shake from Whastapp (Today, 32% of Venezuelans are informed by this means, another third rely on word of mouth and the rest – true to the official communication – follow the chains of the state) reinforcing the image of Maduro's evil leader.

For the opposition, they are the martyrs of the struggle that they lead, often in exile, while praying for armed foreign intervention that worsens the tragedy.

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