Investors are now doubtful about Argentina's debt repayment capacity in 2020

The most affected bonds are the short-term bonds, which expire between 2020 and 2025. The reason is clear: they would be the most affected if the future government did not pay the debt, fell into default and began a new restructuring.

All eyes are now on the 2020 Bonar. It expires in October of next year, in a year and a half only. However, since you do not know who will rule Argentina at this time, we are all unknown. ¿Will the new government be willing to pay the debt? And not least: will he have the resources to do it?

This short-term stock was down again at the beginning of the week and ended up at $ 91, meaning that its yield was close to 15% annually in dollars. Its price was around 100 USD just 3 months ago. Such a collapse can only be explained by the mistrust that has seized the market and will not be dissipated in the months to come.

Figures that the government opposes

* Given the $ 5.9 billion that the IMF will disburse next year, it would only be possible to obtain $ 16.3 billion in the debt market. The totality would be sought locally, not requiring international placements.

* From this total, more than 11,100 million USD of refinancements of existing titles and only 5,200 million USD would be new issues of debts. Of this total, only 35% is denominated in dollars, which facilitates refinancing in local currency debt.

* In the event that the refinancing of Letes that the government has before it reaches 67% or more, there would be no need to go out and place a new debt next year.

With this data that emerged from the finance secretary, Santiago Bausili, he seeks to transmit tranquility to the markets. The message is clear: there is no significant maturity of debt next year, the ability to pay would therefore remain intact. However, investors are gradually entering into a kind of "panic mode", in which no rational explanation is taken into account when deciding to stay in Argentine bonds or sell.

Another factor that would work in favor is the introduction of a profound change of creditors. The IMF is becoming the largest holder of Argentine debt, while investors holding bonds charge interest and principal at maturity. In the end, the markets will end up with little Argentine debt, which should "trigger" a significant drop in country risk.

Rational explanations, however, have no place at the moment. Although it remains still more than six months before the elections, investors seek refuge and remain the least exposed possible to Argentine badets.

It is also worrying that the sale of bonds translates into increased pressure on exchange rates. Those who sell Argentine securities at the end of the day will ask for foreign currency to get them out of the country and take them elsewhere.

On the other hand, it is excluded that whoever wins wins to renegotiate in the longer term the agreement signed with the IMF, in order to return the loan to the agency in a much longer period and not from 2021. established in the "Stand-by". But for that, there is still a lot of time.